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MLB Betting – Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee Preview & Pick

Shea weighs in with his MLB Free Pick for Saturday. It’s the Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers matching up at Miller Park. The Brewers are currently 105-moneyline favorites…

MLB Betting – Reds vs Brewers Preview & Pick

Despite losing six of 10 through Wednesday, the Cincinnati Reds continue to tread water in the National League Central.

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MLB Gambling Online – Reds vs. Brewers Preview & Pick
Date: Saturday, July 9, 2011
Venue: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
Broadcast: FSOH, FSWI
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Lines from Betonline
Money Line: -105
Over/Under: 7.5
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Cincinnati Reds (44-44 through July 6)
Johnny Cueto (5-3, 1.77)

Jay Bruce slump aside, we still know this team has as much power as any team in the NL. But what should the Reds do about their pitching?

Last year, guys like Bronson Arroyo and, when healthy, Edinson Volquez were great contributors. Aroldis Chapman was an ace or dominant closer in the making. But they’ve all struggled this season.

Pretty much the only Reds pitcher pulling his weight is Johnny Cueto, who will face the Brewers on Saturday. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start this season. However, it’s worth noting that Miller Park – which has been baseball’s top offensive stadium in 2011 – has been a nightmarish place for Cueto to visit. Over three career starts there, he’s 0-2 with 13 earned runs and four homers allowed in just 14.2 innings.

Milwaukee Brewers (46-42 through July 6)
Shaun Marcum (7-3, 3.32)

About a month ago, it looked like the Milwaukee Brewers were pulling away in the NL Central. Now, they’re right back in the pack, going 2-7 over their last nine games. What’s the problem? Part of it is that Corey Hart and Casey McGehee have tanked after overachieving in 2010. Ryan Braun’s calf strain doesn’t help, either.

Shaun Marcum’s health has also been a concern. Since he started battling through a hip injury, he hasn’t been the same. He hit a grand slam his last time out but has allowed four runs in each of his last two starts. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]

The pick:

Despite Cueto’s poor history at Miller Park, I like him to turn things around on Saturday. He’s pitching well enough this season that his previous numbers don’t mean as much; he hasn’t faced Milwaukee in 2011.

On the flip side, Marcum isn’t himself. His home ERA is more than two runs higher than his road ERA. It also appears that he won’t get his usual strong run support from the Milwaukee lineup, which hasn’t been as reliable lately. Try the Reds as a minor upset play.

MLB Trends
Under is 7-2-1 in TB last 10 overall.
Under is 18-6-2 in TB last 26 Fri. games.
TB are 6-2 in their last 8 road games.
Under is 7-1-1 in NYY last 9 overall.
Under is 7-1-1 in NYY last 9 on grass.
NYY are 3-10 in their last 13 Fri. games.
Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in New York.
Over is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings.

MLB Free Pick

Reds vs Brewers prediction: Reds 5, Brewers 3

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By Shea Matthews

Shea Matthews the Senior Writer at CP. Lives and breathes sports. He made the transition from athlete to sports journalist at a young age, writing in TV & national papers. Shea applies his knowledge to sports betting + handicapping daily, and shares winning picks with the world.