Tuesday MLB Baseball Picks: Rays vs Indians
The best Sportsbook for America’s Pastime! – From MLB teasers to parlays, from futures to wacky props, Betonline adds more excitement – CLICK HERE NOW + BET ON MLB TODAY!
MLB Betting – Rays vs. Indians Preview & Pick
Date: Thursday, May 12, 2011
Venue: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Broadcast: SUN
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians Betting Lines from BetOnline.com
Money Line: Rays -105, Indians -105
Over/Under: 7.5
CLICK here for INDEPTH MLB ATS Stats for this matchup —>
Bet now at BETONLINE —>
Tampa Bay Rays (20-15 through May 10)
James Shields (3-1, 2.01)
The Tampa Bay Rays continue to steadily make their way back up the American League East standings after a slow start to 2011. Evan Longoria is finding his groove shortly after returning from his DL stint. The superstar third baseman has five hits, including two doubles, two homers and six RBI, over his last three games.
Longoria and the Rays’ lineup have to feel confident that they don’t need to score much to win on Thursday with James Shields taking the mound. Statistically, he was one of baseball’s unluckiest pitchers last season, so his bounce-back hasn’t surprised the statheads or diehard poolies. His walk rate is slightly up for his lofty standard but Shields is keeping the ball in the park much better than he usually does. He’s allowed just three earned runs over his last four starts – a stretch spanning 33.1 innings.
Cleveland Indians (23-11 through May 10)
Justin Masterson (5-0, 2.11)
We keep waiting for the Cleveland Indians to turn into a pumpkin but it just hasn’t happened. They keep mashing – seven different Cleveland players have at least four homers this season – and their young pitching staff continues to dominate. That includes Justin Masterson, who remains undefeated after seven starts.
He has a poor track record against the Rays in his career, going 1-4 with a 6.00 ERA, but should we care much about those stats? The 2011 Masterson looks like a new pitcher and he hasn’t faced Tampa this season.
MLB Trends:
TB are 9-1 in their last 10 games on grass.
TB are 16-5 in their last 21 road games.
Under is 6-2 in TB last 8 Thu. games.
Over is 7-1 in CLE last 8 home games.
CLE are 22-5 in their last 27 home games.
CLE are 8-2 in their last 10 Thu. games.
TB are 8-22 in the last 30 meetings in Cleveland.
TB are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
The pick:
Interestingly enough, Shields also has a bad history against his opponent in this matchup; he’s 0-4 over six career starts against the Indians. However, despite the poor record, he has a 1.19 WHIP and just five walks over 37.2 innings against them. That suggests he’s been unlucky, just as he was last season.
Given Shields’ solid rate stats, I see him as more likely than Masterson to continue his hot streak, so I like Tampa to edge the first-overall Indians on Thursday.
Rays vs Indians prediction: Rays 4, Indians 3
Money Line: Rays -105
Over/Under: UNDER 7.5
