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MLB Betting – Philadelphia vs. Atlanta Preview & Pick

Shea weighs in with his MLB Free Pick for tonight. It’s the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves matching up at Turner Field. The Braves are currently 105-moneyline favorites…

Friday MLB Baseball Picks: Phillies vs Braves

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MLB Betting – Phillies vs Braves Preview & Pick
Date: Friday, May 13, 2011
Venue: Turner Field, Atlanta, GA
Broadcast: WB17, FSS
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Betting Lines from BetOnline.com
Money Line: Braves -105
Over/Under: 7 (-110)
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Philadelphia Phillies (24-12)
Cole Hamels (4-2, 2.83)

It’s scary to see that the Philadelphia Phillies have the National League’s best record even though their offense hasn’t totally gotten going. They’re awaiting Chase Utley’s return from a knee injury and top prospect Domonic Brown is due to be called up any day now.

Predictably, the Phillies haven’t even needed much offense because their starting pitchers have been so good. Through Tuesday’s action the Phillies led the majors in strikeouts and had a ridiculous 27 quality starts in 35 games. Cole Hamels, who gets the nod on Friday night at Atlanta, has provided six of those quality starts in seven outings. He’s a rare talent in that he doesn’t walk too many guys but he also strikes out more than a batter per inning.

Atlanta Braves (20-18 through May 11)
Brandon Beachy (1-1, 2.98)

Like the Philadelphia Phillies, the Atlanta Braves have relied on their stellar starting pitching to stay in the NL East hunt. Brandon Beachy has been sensational as a rookie, striking out 45 hitters in 42.1 innings with just 11 walks. Those are Hamel-esque numbers, aren’t they? Bet on MLB at BetOnline

The Braves’ bats have shown signs of coming around after a hot start but they may have to soldier on without Jason Heyward this weekend. He’s been bothered by a sore shoulder and was scheduled for an MRI late in the week.

MLB Trends:

PHI are 21-8 in their last 29 Fri. games.
Under is 5-2-1 in PHI last 8 on grass.
PHI are 54-23 in their last 77 games on grass.
Over is 7-1 in ATL last 8 home games.
Over is 7-2 in ATL last 9 Fri. games.
Over is 15-5-2 in ATL last 22 overall.
Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Atlanta.

The pick:

Tough choice on Friday. Do you go with the proven Hamels, who is 10-6 against the Braves in his career, or Beachy, who has the element of surprise in his favor but might be due to come back to Earth soon? I’ll lean the Phillies’ way. Atlanta isn’t quite as dangerous without Heyward and Ryan Howard seems to save his best hitting for the Braves. He has 100 RBI in 108 games against Atlanta in his career. He could be the man to solve Beachy.

Phillies vs Braves prediction: Phillies 5, Braves 3

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By Shea Matthews

Shea Matthews the Senior Writer at CP. Lives and breathes sports. He made the transition from athlete to sports journalist at a young age, writing in TV & national papers. Shea applies his knowledge to sports betting + handicapping daily, and shares winning picks with the world.