MLB Betting – Washington vs. Arizona Preview & Pick

Thursday MLB Betting – Nationals vs Diamondbacks Preview & Pick

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MLB Betting – Nationals vs Diamondbacks Preview & Pick
Date: June 2, 2011
Venue: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Broadcast: MASN, FSAZ
Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Lines from BetOnline.com
Money Line: Washington -126
Over/Under: 9
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Washington Nationals (23-31 through May 31)
Jordan Zimmermann (2-6, 3.88)

You wouldn’t know it from his record but Jordan Zimmermann has been a nice little bright spot in an otherwise bleak 2011 season for the Washington Nationals. In his first full season after Tommy John surgery, he’s showing the telltale signs of a born-again pitcher. His velocity is in the mid-90s, he’s allowed just three homers in 60.1 innings, and his 44:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio is solid. Zimmermann is also improving: this month, he has a 3.23 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 30.2 innings.

Unfortunately for him, run support has been hard to find. The Nats are 22^nd in baseball in offense and 28^th with a .233 team average. They have Zimmermann (two N’s) but miss Zimmerman (one N), injured third baseman Ryan. Maybe Jayson Werth can heat up during this trip to the desert? He’s 4 for 8 with a homer against Arizona’s probable starter for Thursday, Zach Duke.

Arizona Diamondbacks (30-25 through May 31)
Zach Duke (1-0, 0.00)

The Arizona Diamondbacks are just a couple seasons removed from supposedly being one of baseball’s most promising young teams. Maybe they were just late to the party? Maybe their recent surge is legit?

We certainly have to take Justin Upton’s power spike seriously. He’s still just 23 years old and drew comparisons to Ken Griffey Jr. as a rook. Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson are heralded young pitchers, so they’re efforts look for real, too. Even closer J.J. Putz has always been lights-out when healthy, so his stellar play could also be sustainable.

MLB Trends:

WAS are 3-8 in their last 11 overall.
WAS are 3-8 in their last 11 games on grass.
WAS are 29-65 in their last 94 road games.
ARI are 8-1 in their last 9 home games.
ARI are 16-5 in their last 21 overall.
ARI are 16-5 in their last 21 games on grass.
Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings in Arizona.
WAS are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

The pick:

One guy whose start I don’t believe in is Zach Duke. He cruised in his season debut last week but it was against the lowly Houston Astros. The Nats aren’t much better but Duke has a 5.19 career ERA against them. As I said, Werth hits him hard. So does Danny Espinosa. This kid doesn’t hit for average but he has a lot of pop. He has 10 homers already, including four in his last five games, and he has a homer against Duke in just two at-bats.

I like Washington to touch up the shaky, overrated Duke and steal a win on the road Thursday.

Nationals vs Diamondbacks prediction: Nationals 6, Diamondbacks 4

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