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MLB Betting – N.Y. vs. Philadelphia Gambling Prediction / Preview

Wednesday MLB Baseball Picks: Mets vs Phillies

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MLB Betting – Mets vs Phillies Preview & Pick
Date: 7:05PM ET, Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Broadcast: SNY
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Lines from Betus.com
Money Line: Phillies -140
Over/Under: 9.5
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New York Mets (2-1 through April 4)
Mike Pelfrey (0-1, 10.38)

If the New York Mets want to sustain any kind of relevant rivalry with the mighty Philadelphia Phillies this season, they’ll need pitchers like Mike Pelfrey to step up and produce in Johan Santana’s absence. He did anything but that in his first 2011 start against the Marlins, allowing five runs and walking four batters in 4.1 innings of work.

The good news: the former first-round pick Pelfrey finally came into his own last season, going 15-9 with a 3.66 ERA. The bad news: Citizens Bank Park is his own private Hell. In 25.1 innings pitched there (over five starts), he’s allowed 23 earned runs (8.17 ERA), served up seven homers and walked 11. It doesn’t get much worse than that.

Philadelphia Phillies (3-0 through April 4)
Joe Blanton (No record)

Geez, whiz. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt started the Phillies’ first three games and they opened the season 3-0. Who knew?

OK – so we get it. The Phantastic Four (which also includes Cole Hamels) should dominate. But what happens when their No. 5 man, Joe Blanton, gets the ball? He showed his usual strong control last season, walking only 43 guys in 175.2 innings, but he allowed 27 homers and let opponents bat .291 off him.

Blanton has been a Met killer in his career, going 3-1 with a 2.64 ERA over seven starts. He owns the Mets’ top hitters, including Carlos Beltran (.143 lifetime against Blanton), Jose Reyes (.111) and David Wright (.263). The Mets’ best bet to solve Blanton may be youngster Ike Davis. The big first baseman is off to a solid start this season and is 4 for 8 against Blanton in his career.

MLB Trends:

NYM are 8-24 in their last 32 Wed. games.
Over is 47-21-7 in NYM last 75 Wed. games.
Over is 13-4-1 in Pelfreys last 18 Wed. starts.
PHI are 37-15 in their last 52 home games.
PHI are 57-24 in their last 81 overall.
PHI are 57-24 in their last 81 games on grass.
Under is 22-8-1 in the last 31 meetings.

The pick:

With two homer-prone pitchers taking the hill, this could be a real track meet. But Blanton at least has a history of success against the Mets. Pelfrey, on the other hand, gets eaten alive whenever he visits the City of Brotherly Love. Chase Utley, the man who hits Pelfrey the hardest, remains sidelined with a knee injury, but Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez and Shane Victorino all have good track records against Pelfrey, too. They’ll give Blanton the run support he needs.

Mets vs Phillies prediction: Phillies 9, Mets 5

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About Shea Matthews

Shea Matthews the Senior Writer at CP. Lives and breathes sports. He made the transition from athlete to sports journalist at a young age, writing in TV & national papers. Shea applies his knowledge to sports betting + handicapping daily, and shares winning picks with the world.