Thursday MLB Baseball Picks: Giants vs Dodgers Game 1
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MLB Betting – Giants vs Dodgers Preview & Pick
Date: Thursday, March 31, 2011
Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Broadcast: ESPN
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Lines from Betus.com
Money Line: Giants -110, Dodgers -110
Over/Under: 6.5
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San Francisco Giants (0-0)
Tim Lincecum (2010: 16-10, 3.43 ERA)
Even as the defending World Series champions, the San Francisco Giants may enter 2011 with a little chip on their collective shoulder.
Some detractors worry Pablo Sandoval was a flash in the pan and that his wild-swinging ways caught up to him last year. He believes he’ll be an elite player again now that he’s dropped serious weight.
Other people worry Buster Posey played over his head as a rookie and will hit the sophomore slump. He and the Giants see him as their offensive centerpiece.
And some people worry that Tim Lincecum’s regression in 2010 could be permanent since a drop in velocity accompanied the dip in his numbers. However, the two-time Cy Young winner is still only 26 years old. He’s also absolutely dominant in April historically, going 10-2 with a 2.01 ERA and 126 strikeouts over 103 innings.
Los Angeles Dodgers (0-0)
Clayton Kershaw (2010: 13-10, 2.91 ERA)
The Los Angeles Dodgers also enter 2011 with plenty to prove. Instead of trying to show they weren’t a fluke like the Giants, the Dodgers are trying to show their disappointing 2010 campaign was a fluke.
Questions abound for the Dodgers’ go-to guys. Can Matt Kemp return to superstar status after he spent much of 2010 in Joe Torre’s doghouse and batted .249 despite being a .285 career hitter? Can Andre Ethier regain his power stroke? He was a Triple Crown threat before the 2010 All-Star break, batting .324 with 14 homers and 54 RBI in 70 games, but hit just .256 with nine homers and 28 RBI in 69 post-break games. 
The one constant for L.A. should be ace Clayton Kershaw. The former top prospect has been as good as advertised in his major-league career. He walks plenty of batters but makes up for it by being unhittable and missing lots of bats.
MLB Trends:
SF are 8-1 in their last 9 Thu. games.
SF are 7-2 in their last 9 road games.
SF are 20-8 in their last 28 overall.
Under is 8-3-1 in LA last 12 overall.
Under is 8-3-1 in LA last 12 on grass.
Under is 7-3 in Kershaws last 10 Thu. starts.
SF are 7-1 in Lincecums last 8 starts vs. LA.
Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
The pick:
Picking the UNDER makes sense for this Opening Day tilt. Lincecum rules April and Kershaw was a beast against the Giants last season, posting a 1.55 ERA over four starts. But I’ll give the slight edge to the defending World champs on Thursday.
Kemp has nothing against Lincecum, going 2-for-20 with nine strikeouts against him in his career. Also, we don’t know if Jonathan Broxton will return to glory as L.A.’s closer. You could argue that the Giants’ Sergio Romo, who will fill in for injured Brian Wilson on Thursday, is the safer ninth-inning bet. That comparison is important since this game should be close.
Giants vs Dodgers prediction: Giants 3, Dodgers 2
Money Line: Giants -110
Over/Under: UNDER 6.5
