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MLB Betting – Arizona vs. Atlanta Preview & Pick

Shea weighs in with his MLB Free Pick for Friday. It’s the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves matching up at Turner Field. The Braves are currently 115-moneyline favorites…

MLB Betting – D-Backs vs Braves Preview & Pick

The Arizona Diamondbacks are taking a pretty big gamble on Saturday when they trot a rookie out to the mound in the middle of a playoff race.

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MLB Betting – Diamondbacks vs Braves Preview & Pick
Date: Saturday, August 20, 2011
Venue: Turner Field, Atlanta, GA
Broadcast: FSAZ, FSS
Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves Betting Lines from BetOnline.com
Money Line: Braves -115
Over/Under: 7.5
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Arizona Diamondbacks (69-54 through August 17)
Wade Miley (No record)

It’s not like Wade Miley is the next Max Scherzer or Tommy Hanson. He was 4-1 with a pedestrian 3.64 ERA at Triple-A Reno. But Jason Marquis broke his leg after getting hit by a line drive on Sunday and someone needs to replace him. So, with the D-backs battling for the National League West lead and posturing for the Wild Card, Miley will make his first career start against Atlanta.

Miley hasn’t been overpowering in his minor-league career but his strikeout rate has risen above a batter per inning at Triple-A. And he’ll at least have the support of an Arizona team that had won seven of eight through Wednesday. Justin Upton continues to lead the charge, putting it all together this year with a .303 average, 25 homers, 75 RBI and 18 steals.

Atlanta Braves (72-52 through August 17)
Brandon Beachy (5-2, 3.43)

The Braves are going about it differently than they did earlier this season, no longer relying solely on pitching, but they’re still winning enough to remain atop the NL Wildcard standings. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]

They key has obviously been Dan Uggla. The second baseman is batting .393 with seven homers and 15 RBI in 15 August games.

Uggla’s explosion is good news for rookie pitcher Brandon Beachy. He’s still showing all the signs of becoming a star but he hasn’t gone deep in games of late and teams are figuring him out ever so slightly. He has a 4.24 ERA in August; his mark was 3.72 or lower in every other month this season.

MLB Trends

Over is 7-1 in ARI last 8 Fri. games.
ARI are 7-2 in their last 9 overall.
ARI are 7-2 in their last 9 games on grass.
Over is 7-2 in ATL last 9 on grass.
Over is 12-4 in ATL last 16 overall.
ATL are 8-3 in their last 11 overall.
Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.

MLB Free pick:

Arizona’s bats could pose some trouble for a flyball pitcher like Beachy. However, the D-Backs haven’t faced him yet, so he could just as easily baffle them with his power arsenal.

Atlanta hasn’t faced Miley, either – but Miley hasn’t faced anyone. He has a tall order pitching on the road against an elite team in his first career start, especially when his numbers suggest he isn’t even really ready for a callup. I think the Braves will beat him up.

Diamondbacks vs Braves prediction: Braves 6, Diamondbacks 3

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By Shea Matthews

Shea Matthews the Senior Writer at CP. Lives and breathes sports. He made the transition from athlete to sports journalist at a young age, writing in TV & national papers. Shea applies his knowledge to sports betting + handicapping daily, and shares winning picks with the world.