Wednesday MLB Baseball Picks: Cubs vs Dodgers
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MLB Betting – Cubs vs Dodgers Preview & Pick
Date: Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Venue: Dodgers Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Broadcast: CSN, FSPT
Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Lines from Betus.com
Money Line: Dodgers -122
Over/Under: 7.5 (-115)
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Chicago Cubs (12-16 through May 2)
Carlos Zambrano (3-1, 4.91)
The Chicago Cubs are losing ground in the National League Central and, for the first time in a while, pitching looks like it’s to blame. The Cubbies are second-worst in baseball in ERA (4.96) and WHIP (1.50) and last in the majors with eight quality starts from their staff in 28 games. While Matt Garza is starting to turn things around, stalwarts Ryan Dempster and Wednesday’s starter, Carlos Zambrano, have been subpar.
Big Z got tagged for six runs by the Los Angeles Dodgers, whom he’ll face Wednesday, but he did allow just two runs over 14 innings in the two starts on either side of that drubbing. If he gets run support, it will likely be courtesy of Alfonso Soriano. His 11 homers on the year are half Chicago’s total and he has five longballs in his last six games through Monday. Soriano is a .333 lifetime hitter off Dodgers probable starter Ted Lilly.
Los Angeles Dodgers (15-15 through May 2)
Ted Lilly (2-2, 4.45)
Is there any better PR campaign for a ballclub than a long hit streak? The Dodgers are just a .500 team, 22nd in the majors in runs per game, but Andre Ethier’s 28-game streak has provided a nice distraction from the team’s shortcomings. 
While Ethier and Matt Kemp have been nice stories offensively, few other Dodgers are contributing offensively. The usually stellar pitching staff has scuffled at times, too. Ted Lilly seems to alternate good outings and bad ones, allowing four, zero, five and one run over his last four starts.
MLB Trends:
CHC are 2-8 in their last 10 games following a win.
CHC are 13-3 in Zambranos last 16 starts.
CHC are 13-3 in Zambranos last 16 starts on grass.
Under is 6-2-1 in Lillys last 9 on grass.
Under is 6-2-1 in Lillys last 9 starts overall.
The pick:
Lilly’s peripherals suggest he might be a bit unlucky. His walk rate and homer rate are solid and his WHIP is skewed by one ugly outing in which he allowed 11 hits. So I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned in a solid effort on Wednesday.
However, I expect something similar if not better from Big Z. He loves pitching at Dodger Stadium, going 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 38 innings. I like the Cubs to edge the Dodgers in a pitcher’s duel.
Cubs vs Dodgers prediction: Cubs 3, Dodgers 2
