Saturday MLB Baseball Picks: Cardinals vs Reds
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MLB Betting – Cardinals vs Reds Preview & Pick
Date: Saturday, May 14, 2011
Venue: Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH
Broadcast: FSMW, FSOH
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Betting Lines from BetOnline.com
Money Line: Reds -125
Over/Under: 9 (-125)
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St. Louis Cardinals (22-16 through May 12)
Kyle McClellan (5-0, 3.30)
The St. Louis Cardinals have defied expectations this season, partially because of their unexpected offensive prowess, led by Lance Berkman, and partially because their pitching has been surprisingly good.
Take Kyle McClellan. He converts to reliever to replace injured Adam Wainwright and goes 5-0 over his first six big-league starts. It’s a testament to the magic of pitching coach Dave Duncan. But I wonder how long McClellan can go without a loss. He strikes out no one – just 22 in 43.2 innings – and his walk rate is just so-so. The 1.35 WHIP is characteristic of, say, a guy with a 3-2 record, not 5-0.
Cincinnati Reds (20-17 through May 12)
Johnny Cueto (1-0, 0.00)
The Reds started 2011 slowly but they’re heating up, winning six of eight through Thursday. It’s easy to see the reason for the turnaround. Their pitching is finally bouncing back. The Reds have allowed four runs or fewer in eight straight games.
The hitting was always there and never veered from last year’s form; Cincy is the third-highest scoring team in baseball and Joey Votto has matched his MVP form of a year ago. All the Reds needed was for their pitching to come around.
Johnny Cueto’s return from the DL certainly helps. He mowed through the Cubs for six scoreless innings in his first game back last week. St. Louis’ lineup will be a step up in competition, however; Cueto’s lifetime ERA over nine starts against them is 6.44.
MLB Trends:
STL are 3-9 in their last 12 Sat. games.
STL are 6-2 in their last 8 road games.
Over is 20-8-1 in STL last 29 overall.
CIN are 21-7 in their last 28 Sat. games.
CIN are 6-2 in their last 8 overall.
CIN are 6-2 in their last 8 games on grass.
STL are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
Over is 7-2 in Cuetos last 9 starts vs. STL.
The pick:
McClellan’s luck has to turn at some point. The Reds have some powerful, patient hitters in Votto, Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce. They’ll wait for their pitch and I wouldn’t be surprised if they were the first group to really punish McClellan this season. Cueto was sharp last week and, even though St. Louis often hits him hard, it usually happens in St. Louis, not in Cueto’s home park. Pick the Reds.
Cardinals vs Reds prediction: Reds 7, Cardinals 2
