Thursday MLB Baseball Picks: Brewers vs Reds
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MLB Betting – Brewers vs Reds Preview & Pick
Date: Saturday, April 2, 2011
Venue: Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH
Broadcast: WMLW, FSOH
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Betting Lines from Betus.com
Moneyline/Spread/Total Odds
913 BREWERS +1½-200 o8½-105 +105
914 REDS -1½+170 u8½-115 -125
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Milwaukee Brewers
Shaun Marcum (2010: 13-8, 3.64 ERA)
Don’t be surprised if the Brewers and Reds form the National League Central’s biggest rivalry this season. The Reds are of course, the defending champions and the Brewers are expected to contend for the crown after bolstering their pitching to accompany their solid hitting over the offseason.
One of their key new arrivals, Zack Greinke, is on the DL with broken ribs, but the other, Shaun Marcum, is ready to make his debut Saturday.
Marcum toiled in obscurity as a Toronto Blue Jay but bettors shouldn’t sleep on him. He’s an efficient, deceptive pitcher with solid control. His 3.85 career ERA is more impressive than it looks considering he made his living in the AL East. 
Cincinnati Reds
Travis Wood (2010: 5-4, 3.51 ERA)
After all the hype Aroldis Chapman and Mike Leake attracted as highly touted Reds rookies, it was Travis Wood that stole the show in 2010. The rook showed a healthy strikeout rate and was very efficient, compiling a 1.08 WHIP and holding opponents to a .222 average.
Could Wood be a Brewer killer this season? He faced them twice in his first season, going 1-0 with 3.97 ERA. He had 12 strikeouts in 11.1 innings and held them to a .195 average.
MLB Trends:
Under is 9-3 in MIL last 12 games following a loss.
CIN are 17-7 in their last 24 home games.
Under is 15-7-1 in CIN last 23 home games.
MIL are 1-9 in the last 10 meetings in Cincinnati.
MIL are 4-17 in the last 21 meetings.
The pick:
This is a tough matchup to call. On one hand, Marcum could have an edge because so few of the Brewers have faced him. On the other, he’s on the road and Wood has proven his mettle against Cincinnati before. If Marcum has a weakness, it’s homers. He’s served up at least 21 taters in each of his three full seasons as a starting pitcher.
Not only is Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati favorable for hitters, the Reds have plenty of powerful bats who can punish Marcum – namely, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs. I don’t expect a blowout but I think the long ball will put the Reds over the edge at home.
Brewers vs Reds prediction: Reds 5, Brewers 3
