Friday MLB Baseball Picks: Braves vs Phillies
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MLB Betting – Braves vs Phillies Preview & Pick
Date: Friday, May 6, 2011
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Broadcast: SPSO
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Lines from BetOnline.com
Money Line: Braves +141, Phillies -151
Over/Under: 7.5
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Atlanta Braves (17-15 through May 4)
Derek Lowe (2-3, 3.72)
Here come the Atlanta Braves. Their starting rotation of Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, Brandon Beachy, Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens has pulled its weight all season but the offense hasn’t. Until now, that is. Through Wednesday’s action, the Braves had scored at least six runs in four straight games. Slowly but surely, the bats are coming around.
Derek Lowe will face the Phillies on Friday. The sinkerballer’s strikeout rate has never been better but he’s come back to Earth slightly after a hot start, allowing four-plus runs in two of his last three starts.
Philadelphia Phillies (20-9 through May 4)
Cliff Lee (2-2, 3.66)
The Philadelphia Phillies are still waiting for their offensive explosion – Chase Utley is on the way back from injury – but their record still sparkles because their stacked starting rotation has delivered. Cliff Lee’s ERA is a bit higher than expected at 3.66 but he only has six walks and he’s struck out 44 guys in 39.1 innings, suggesting he’s simply been unlucky.
The last time Lee faced Atlanta, however, they got the better of him, drilling him for 10 hits and six runs to chase him from the game after 3.1 innings on April 8. It was trend, not fluke: Lee has a 6.98 ERA over four career starts versus the Braves.
MLB Trends:
Over is 7-1 in ATL last 8 Fri. games.
Over is 12-3-1 in ATL last 16 overall.
Over is 12-3-1 in ATL last 16 on grass.
PHI are 21-7 in their last 28 Fri. games.
PHI are 53-21 in their last 74 overall.
PHI are 53-21 in their last 74 games on grass.
ATL are 2-7 in the last 9 meetings.
The pick:
The time feels right to ride the Braves while they’re hot. Lee is still a dominant force but he’s catching the Atlanta hitters at the wrong moment. Though the samples are small, many Braves have a good history against Lee, including Brian McCann (.600), Nate McLouth (.400), Martin Prado (.375) Alex Gonzalez (.357).
Lowe, meanwhile, is 4-2 with a 2.96 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. He can handle the depleted Phillies roster and just might get some solid run support on Friday.
Braves vs Phillies prediction: Braves 5, Phillies 3
Money Line: Braves +141
Over/Under: OVER 7.5
