2012 MLB Team Preview: Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays will enter the 2012 season with a decent team again but seemingly with little chance to break through in the toughest division in baseball.
Odds to Win American League Pennant: +1500
Odds to Win World Series: +2500
Key Additions:
2B Luis Valbuena, OF Ben Francisco, C Jeff Mathis, RHP Cole Kimball, RHP Jason Frasor, RHP Sergio Santos
Back for 2012: INF Edwin Encarnacion, 2B Kelly Johnson, RHP Jesse Litsch, RHP Dustin McGowan
Key Subtractions:
UTIL Jayson Nix, C Jose Molina, RHP Shawn Camp, RHP Frank Francisco, RHP Jon Rauch
If championships were measured by the amount of exciting youngsters, the Jays would be somewhere in contention but unfortunately inexperience and youthful exuberance means that Toronto is at least a few years away from being a serious contender.
Toronto`s offense and defense appears set – solid in the infield and in the outfield.
All of the position players are young and all seemingly know how to hit the ball. Let`s take a look at the Toronto`s offense firstly and follow that up with the pitching. Let’s start with the offense.
Projected batting order
1. SS Yunel Escobar:
.290 BA, .369 OBP, .413 SLG, 11 HR, 48 RBIs in 2011
2. 2B Kelly Johnson:
.222 BA, .304 OBP, .413 SLG, 7 HR, 21 RBIs in 2011
3. RF Jose Bautista:
.302 BA, .447 OBP, .608 SLG, 43 HR, 103 RBIs in 2011
4. 1B Adam Lind:
.251 BA, .295 OBP, .439 SLG, 26 HR, 87 RBIs in 2011
5. 3B Brett Lawrie:
.293 BA, .373 OBP, .580 SLG, 9 HR, 25 RBIs in 2011
6. CF Colby Rasmus:
.225 BA, .298 OBP, .391 SLG, 14 HR, 53 RBIs in 2011
7. DH Edwin Encarnacion:
.272 BA, .334 OBP, .453 SLG, 17 HR, 55 RBIs in 2011
8. LF Eric Thames:
.262 BA, .313 OBP, .456 SLG, 12 HR, 37 RBIs in 2011
9. C J.P. Arencibia:
.219 BA, .282 OBP, .438 SLG, 23 HR, 78 RBIs in 2011
A look at Toronto`s batting order reveals the lack of a true leadoff hitter, although Yunel Escobar is certainly capable of getting on base. He lacks that “burner quality” typical of a leadoff man but he certainly is no slouch in that position.
Kelly Johnson is the likely the man to hit out of the two-hole and after a rather disappointing 2011 (he batted .284 with 26 HRs and 71 RBIs in 2010). If he can return to form, the Jays should be set. Following Johnson are Jose Bautista and Adam Lind – the two combined for 69 home runs and 190 RBIs last year.
The bottom, of the order is littered with young talent that, if they can reach their potential, are a real threat to keep the Jays in a lot of games.
On paper, Toronto has a good young nucleus – the trick is getting them all to play up to their lofty goals this season. Now let’s look at the Jays’ pitching.
Projected rotation
1. Ricky Romero, 15-11, 2.92 ERA in 2011
2. Brandon Morrow, 11-11, 4.72 ERA in 2011
3. Brett Cecil, 4-11, 4.73 ERA in 2011
4. Henderson Alvarez, 1-3, 3.53 ERA in 2011
5. Dustin McGowan, 0-2, 6.43 ERA in 2011
Toronto is going into the season with largely the same rotation that finished last season – young and talented they are. But depth could become a concern. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
Ricky Romero in the unquestioned #1, Brandon Morrow is a quality #2 and Brent Cecil, assuming he has gained back some of his velocity and control is a good 3-man. Cecil was very inconsistent last year and in order to stick with the Big Club will absolutely have to be better this year.
The question marks surround the fourth and fifth starters. Henderson Alvarez is OK and Dustin McGowan hopes to gain back his starting spot after sitting out the better part of three years with a barrage of injuries.
If McGowan returns to form, the Jays are suddenly formidable. Remember that Toronto still has highly touted second-year pitcher Kyle Drabek waiting to assume a bigger role for the team.
Projected bullpen
Closer: Sergio Santos, 30/36 saves, 3.55 ERA in 2011
RH setup man: Francisco Cordero, 2.45 ERA in 2011
LH setup man: Darren Oliver, 2.29 ERA in 2011
The Jays have assembled a decent bullpen once again, reacquiring Jason Frasor and trading for White Sox closer from last year Sergio Santos. Francisco Cordero and Darren Oliver have also been added to what should be a very good Toronto pen this year.
Blue Jays 2012 Prediction:
Toronto certainly has some pieces in place but the fact that they still play in the AL East is a big problem for this team.
Their pitching has the potential to be in the top third of the American League but their offense is still a notch below some of the powerhouses in the Division.
Toronto has been a .500 team the last couple of years. Expect a slight improvement but an all-too-familiar fourth place finish in the AL East.
One reply on “Toronto Blue Jays Predictions | 2012 Season Betting Preview”
The jays got no production from center field, third base or dh for the first half of the season and still ranked fifth in mlb. Now with a stud at third rasmus an unknown at center and edwin a dh who had a hot second half best hitter on the team second half,they can’t out score a team with an old short stop and a third baseman with a bad knee 36. The number will speak loud watch out yankees time for your down turn rebuild.