2012 MLB Handicapping: N.Y. Mets
The New York Mets finished the 2011 regular season in fourth-place in the NL East with an overall record of 77-85, but the downward progression actually began after they made the playoffs in 2006 when they won 97 games.
MLB Team Betting Previews- New York Mets
Odds to Win the NL East: +3500
Odds to Win the National League Pennant: +4500
Odds to Win the World Series: +8000
2012 Projected Win Total: 72
The Mets have now won less than 80 games in the last three seasons and could dip even lower this season as the projected bottom-feeder in the division.
The mass exodus of talent from a roster that was once filled with All-Stars continued this offseason with the loss of Jose Reyes after they traded away Carlos Beltran last July. Also gone are Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, and Francisco Rodriguez along with their inflated contracts.
The Mets have become lean and mean over the past few seasons in order to address the multitude of financial woes they faced.
There still is a trio of power in New York’s lineup with David Wright, Jason Bay, and Ike Davis anchoring the meat of the batting order. If the Mets are going to have any shot at staying out of the East’s basement, all three of these guys are going to have to have career seasons.
If a couple of other guys such as Lucas Duda and Daniel Murphy can chip in a few extra hits and runs along the way, New York has a good shot of staying close last season’s run total of 718, which was sixth-best in the NL.
The starting rotation will automatically be better if Johan Santana can successfully return to form after undergoing shoulder surgery in September of 2010 to repair a torn capsule. The former ace has been pitching this spring and right now the prognosis for a full recovery looks very promising. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
The rest of the rotation includes Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R A Dickey, and Dillon Gee. Pelfrey struggled last season with a 4.74 ERA and 7-13 record in 33 starts. Niese’s ERA was well over four as well, but Dickey was a pleasant surprise with a 3.28 ERA in 32 starts.
Gee also turned-in a solid 2011 campaign with a 13-6 record in 27 starts, but his ERA was also north of four at 4.43. Overall, the team was ranked 13th in the NL in pitching with an ERA of 4.19.
The biggest improvement this offseason could be in the Mets’ bullpen with the addition of Frank Francisco, John Rauch, and Ramon Ramirez.
Francisco was brought in as New York’s new closer after the team blew far too many saves in 2011.
2012 Outlook
The Mets still have a solid core of talent on their roster but are stuck in the unfortunate situation of playing in a division with four teams that are simply better than they are on a day-to-day basis. There will probably be no avoiding a last-place finish in 2012, but the ‘over’ on 72 wins is somewhat attractive.
It will go down to the wire, but New York should be able to squeeze around 75 wins out of this ballclub, especially if Johan becomes the Santana of old.
Prediction: 75-87 and fifth in the NL East
