2011 MLB Team Preview: San Diego Padres
Hard to believe, as some of us still have VERY cold temperatures outside, that the Boys of Summer are almost back. But it’s true; teams have started reporting to 2011 Major League Baseball training camps and it’s time to start our team-by-team baseball gambling previews for the year.
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Padres Calender
FEB. 1-18, 2011 – Salary arbitration hearings
FEB. 14, 2011 – Voluntary Spring Training reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players
FEB. 19, 2011 – Voluntary Spring Training reporting date for non-pitchers and catchers
FEB. 26, 2011 – Mandatory Spring Training reporting date for all players
Somehow, the San Diego Padres won 90 games in 2010. If you called that, you’re a liar. Everyone picked the Padres to flop with that popgun offense. Yet they rode some good pitching and the best pitcher’s park in the game to the point that they stayed in the playoff hunt until their final game of the season.
I never believed in last year’s team. They were a fluke to me. So what do I think of Padres now that they’ve lost their superstar slugger, Adrian Gonzalez? You might want to avert your eyes.
SAN DIEGO PADRES
World Series odds: +10000
I’ll come right out with it: San Diego’s lineup looks like the weakest in baseball on paper. The Murderer’s Row in the middle of the order projects to be Ryan Ludwick, Brand Hawpe and Chase Headley. They’re joined by the likes of Orlando Hudson, Jason Bartlett and underachieving youngster Cameron Maybin.
The Padres’ lineup has plenty of bona fide major leaguers, sure, but I’d argue that every single guy swinging the bat on this club would be a No. 6 or No. 7 hitter at best on any other team. Add in the fact that these guys will play half their games at PETCO Park and I’d bet on San Diego scoring the fewest runs in the league this season. 
Naturally, there’s a positive flipside to playing at PETCO: the pitching staff is boosted. Youngster Mat Latos should continue to flourish as the team’s ace as long as his arm doesn’t flame out from his increased workload. Clayton Richard allows too many baserunners but still has No. 2 starter upside. Aaron Harang is an intriguing reclamation project. Still, even with that trio at the top, the Padres have no better than the third-best rotation in their own division if you ask me.
This team’s greatest strength has to be the bullpen. Heath Bell is an elite stopper and he has some outstanding setup men supporting him in Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson. Those two are good enough that the Padres might consider trading Bell this season.
2011 OUTLOOK
I just can’t buy San Diego as a contender this season. I don’t care how good Latos and Bell are; I don’t care how much PETCO boosts the Padres’ pitching. These guys have nothing resembling a star on offense and have to soldier on after trading away their only true stud in Adrian Gonzalez.
I suppose the Padres could surprise on the grounds that I expected them to win 65 games last season and they won 90. So, if you believe in the underdog story again, go for it. But I fully expect this team to crash into the National League West cellar this year.
Prediction: 5th, National League West
