MLB Betting – Phillies vs Cardinals Game 3 NLDS Preview & Pick
The Phillies cruised past the Cardinals in Game 1 of the National League Division Series but the message was loud and clear after Game 2: St. Louis will not go quietly.
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Date: Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Venue: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Broadcast: TBS
Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Lines from BetOnline.com
Money Line: Phillies -135, Cardinals +125
Over/Under: 7
Philadelphia Phillies (series tied 1-1)
Cole Hamels (Regular season: 14-9, 2.79)
What the Phillies hope, however, is that their amazing pitching depth gives them an increasingly large advantage the longer the series goes. Both teams will trot their No. 3 starters to the hill on Tuesday but, in Cole Hamels, the Phillies have a guy who would be a No. 1 on most teams.
Like Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, Hamels is a bona fide ace in that he can blow through hitters with strikeouts while also not nibbling and posting a high walk total. Hamels’ control is among baseball’s best. He does have one bugaboo, however: homers. Hamels had done an uncharacteristically good job keeping the ball in the park until September arrived. Over his last six starts, he allowed nine homers, including at least one in each of those outings.
St. Louis Cardinals (series tied 1-1)
Jaime Garcia (Regular season: 13-7, 3.56 ERA)
The St. Louis Cardinals are listed as home underdog for Game 3 but they don’t fancy themselves that way. They solved the usually unsolvable Cliff Lee on Sunday night. On Tuesday, they’ll start a pitcher who has a strikingly good track record against the Phillies. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
Jaime Garcia has faced the Phillies six times, four as a starter, and has a 1.20 ERA over 30 innings pitched. He struggled at times in the second half of 2011 but didn’t lose a game after August 24 and allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his final five outings. Garcia beat the Phillies with seven innings of one-run ball on September 16.
The pick:
This matchup is extremely tough to call on paper. In Hamels, you have the better, more experienced pitcher, with a World Series ring and a 6-4 playoff record. In Garcia, you have the greener guy, the less talented guy, but a guy whose stellar numbers against the Phillies are tough to ignore.
My gut tells me that Hamels’ experience won’t be enough on Tuesday. He can’t keep the ball in the park right now and I expect him to serve a gopher ball to Albert Pujols, who bats .174 off Hamels in his career but has a pair of homers in 23 at-bats against him.
The Phillies will fall behind in the series and just might turn to Roy Halladay on short rest to keep them alive after that.
Phillies vs Cardinals Game 3 prediction: Cardinals 5, Phillies 3
Money Line: Cardinals +125
Over/Under: OVER 7
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