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MLB Playoff Betting – Brewers vs Cardinals Game 5 Preview & Pick

Baseball Handicapping – Brewers vs Cardinals NLCS Game 5 Preview & Pick

The Milwaukee Brewers did what they had to do after dropping Game 2 of a 2-3-2 series format: win a road game.

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Date: October 14, 2011
Venue: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Broadcast: TBS
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Lines from Sportsbook.com
Money Line: Brewers +113, Cardinals -123
Over/Under: 7.5

Milwaukee Brewers (series tied 2-2)
Zack Greinke (1-0, 9.00)

They had struggled to do so all season, they hadn’t done so yet in the playoffs, but a big effort from Randy Wolf assured the Brewers at least one more game in their beloved Miller Park, where they’ve lost only once this postseason.

Tonight, Zack Greinke will toe the rubber hoping to help the Brewers put St. Louis on the ropes. In two playoff starts, he’s looked nothing like the man who blew away hitters with 201 strikeouts in 171.2 innings and won 16 times this season.

Control hasn’t really been Greinke’s problem. He’s around the plate as usual, having walked two batters in his two outings. He’s just too darn hittable right now, having allowed 16 knocks, including four homers, in just 11 innings. His mental toughness has been a problem in the past; is there a chance he just isn’t cut out for playoff baseball?

St. Louis Cardinals (series tied 2-2)
Jaime Garcia (0-2, 7.36)

The St. Louis Cardinals have to be sweating just a little bit entering Game 5 of the National League Championship Series, even at home. While Greinke is struggling, he at least has a Cy Young pedigree. Cards probable starter Jaime Garcia has been almost as bad in these playoffs, allowing 12 hits, nine runs and two homers over 11 innings, and his struggles extend back to the regular season. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]

Garcia was 9-3 with a 3.22 ERA before the All-Star break and 4-4 with a 4.07 ERA afterwards. He did have a strong September but had a penchant for blowup outings throughout the second half. Garcia had no answer for Ryan Braun in Game 1 and the Brewers’ slugger hasn’t slowed down, batting .471 for the postseason.

The pick:

A possible saving grace for Garcia: he was far more comfortable at home this season, going 9-4 with a 2.55 ERA versus 4-3 with a 4.61 ERA on the road. Greinke, meanwhile, was an amazing 11-0 with a 3.13 ERA at Miller Park but struggled with a 5-6 record and 4.70 ERA on the road.

Greinke’s splits are a microcosm of Milwaukee’s season. Yes, Wolf stepped up last night, but that type of big road effort has been the exception, not the norm. Milwaukee just isn’t the same team on the road. Given how much Greinke has struggled on the road and how well Garcia has pitched at Busch Stadium, a St. Louis victory makes a ton of sense tonight.

Brewers vs Cardinals prediction: Cardinals 5, Brewers 3

Money Line: Cardinals -123
Over/Under: OVER 8.5

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By Shea Matthews

Shea Matthews the Senior Writer at CP. Lives and breathes sports. He made the transition from athlete to sports journalist at a young age, writing in TV & national papers. Shea applies his knowledge to sports betting + handicapping daily, and shares winning picks with the world.