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MLB Playoff Betting – Brewers vs Cardinals Game 3 Preview & Pick

Shea weighs in with his MLB playoffs Free Pick for Wednesday. It’s the Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals matching up at Busch Stadium, in St. Louis MO…

MLB Gambling – Brewers vs. Cardinals Game 3 NLCS Preview & Pick

The St. Louis Cardinals evened up the National League Championship Series on Monday.

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Date: Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Venue: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Broadcast: TBS
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Lines from Bodog.com
Money Line: Brewers +140, Cardinals -155
Over/Under: 7

Milwaukee Brewers (series tied 1-1)
Yovani Gallardo (1-0, 1.29)

Finally, the Milwaukee Brewers lost a home game in the 2011 MLB playoffs. That means the pressure is on them to step up and do something they haven’t done yet this postseason: win a road game.

Yovani Gallardo will hope for a third straight brilliant playoff outing after allowing just two earned runs over 14 sparkling innings against the Diamondbacks. Whereas Gallardo historically owned Arizona entering the National League Division Series, his track record against the Cardinals is the opposite. Over 11 career outings versus the Cards, Gallardo is 1-7 with a 5.66 ERA and whopping 13 homers allowed over just 62 innings.

You can probably guess who Gallardo’s daddy is. It’s Albert Pujols, who is 12 for 27 (.444) with four homers and 11 RBI. Rafael Furcal (.417, 2 HR) also has Gallardo’s number. It looks like Milwaukee’s ace faces a much tougher challenge tonight than he did against the Diamondbacks.

St. Louis Cardinals (series tied 1-1)
Chris Carpenter (1-0, 3.00)

Chris Carpenter will try to top the game of his life as the Cards return to St. Louis for Game 3 of the NLCS tonight. His first playoff start against the Phillies was a rocky one, as he got tagged for four runs in three innings on short rest. But Carpenter delivered when it mattered, throwing a complete-game, three-hit shutout in Philadelphia in the series’ deciding game.

Carpenter will make his first home start of the playoffs tonight. He had a 3.05 ERA over 17 home outings this season. Historically, he loves New Busch Stadium. Carpenter is 32-14 with a 2.58 ERA over 67 lifetime starts there. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]

He’s had his struggles against the Brewers in the past, however, posting a 4.58 lifetime ERA against them in 15 starts. Several Brewer hitters have enjoyed facing Carpenter in the past, including Prince Fielder (.308, 2 HR, 4 RBI in 26 AB), Yuniesky Betancourt (.444) and especially Rickie Weeks. The power-hitting second baseman has six hits, three homers and six RBI in just 10 at-bats against Carpenter.

The pick:

We know Gallardo and Carpenter are both excellent pitchers riding excellent first-round efforts into tonight’s game and that both guys have rough histories against their opponents. As a tiebreaker, I like the home-field factor. Gallardo – and the Brewers as a team, for that matter – haven’t been comfortable outside Miller Park all season.

Carpenter is feeling it right now. Look for him to turn in another sharp effort, even against a lineup that has solved him in the past.

Brewers vs Cardinals prediction: Cardinals 4, Brewers 2

Money Line: Cardinals -155
Over/Under: UNDER 7

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By Shea Matthews

Shea Matthews the Senior Writer at CP. Lives and breathes sports. He made the transition from athlete to sports journalist at a young age, writing in TV & national papers. Shea applies his knowledge to sports betting + handicapping daily, and shares winning picks with the world.