MLB Playoff Betting – San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Game 1 Preview & Pick – 2010 NLCS
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NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES: San Francisco at Philadelphia
Game 1: Saturday, October 16, 7:57 p.m. ET
Tim Lincecum (1-0, 0.00) vs Roy Halladay (1-0, 0.00)
MLB odds: Giants +155, Phillies -165
Playoff matchups don’t get much more epic than what we’ll see in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series between the San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies. Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay combined for 18 scoreless innings and two hits allowed over their two starts. So how do we pick a winner for Game 1 when both guys have looked so untouchable in the playoffs? Let’s try to sort it out and make a pick.
You have to feel a little sorry for Tim Lincecum. Because Halladay threw the second no-hitter in postseason history last week, Lincecum’s amazing effort against the Atlanta Braves went somewhat unnoticed. He struck out 14 batters in a two-hit shutout.
But the Braves were the second-lowest scoring team to qualify for the 2010 playoffs. The Phillies’ potent lineup, laden with lefthanded power bats, will give Lincecum a much bigger challenge in Game 1.
Lincecum is 2-1 with a solid 3.17 ERA in seven career starts against the Phillies, holding them to a .199 average. But it’s worth noting that the Phillies have clubbed eight homers off him in just 48.1 innings. You can probably guess who’s done most of the damage against Lincecum. It’s Mr. Ryan Howard, who has three homers, five RBI and a .316 average over 19 career at-bats against him.
Lincecum has also been subpar by his standards at Philadelphia’s hitters’ haven, Citizens Bank Park. He’s 0-1 with a 3.66 ERA in three career trips there. 
So how does Roy “Doc” Halladay follow up his unbelievable performance versus the Reds, who were the National League’s highest scoring team this season? By comparison, the Giants should seem like a piece of cake for him; they hit just .257 as a team and scored fewer runs than any other playoff qualifier. Halladay was also a force at Citizens Bank this season, going 12-5 with a 2.21 ERA.
But we can’t close the book on this matchup just yet. Strangely enough, Halladay has a worse career track record versus the Giants than he does against any other major-league team. He’s 0-3 with a 7.23 ERA in three career starts against them. He doesn’t have an ERA above 5.54 against any other team. In his lone 2010 start versus the Giants, Halladay allowed five runs in seven innings.
So does this mean we should bet against Halladay? I wouldn’t go that far. First off, some of Halladay’s career stats against San Francisco are misleading when you factor in its current lineup. The Giants got to him once this year but he didn’t walk a batter or allow a homer. None of the Giants starters has ever hit a homer off Halladay. He went winless in two starts against the Reds this regular season, too, but that didn’t stop him from no-hitting them in the playoffs.
We know Lincecum has had trouble with longballs in Philadelphia before. And, as fantastic as he was against the Braves, he faces a much tougher lineup on Saturday. Halladay, on the other hand, faces a much weaker lineup than Cincinnati’s. He’s absolutely dialed in right now and prepares for opponents better than anyone in the game. You just don’t bet against a guy coming off a playoff no-hitter. Would you have bet against Don Larsen had he started another game in the 1956 World Series?
NLCS Betting Trends:
PHILADELPHIA is 101-64 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 25-11 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 101-64 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 94-70 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 71-52 (+14.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 29-21 (+8.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-3 (+0.9 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.5 Units)
Pick: Phillies -165
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