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MLB Trend Report – Starters to put money on!

Three Up Three Down

You’ve surely heard it many times before: The baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. As the third month of play comes to an end and we near the midway point of the season, let’s re-evaluate some names we see on the betting board every fifth day, while noting a few that may have been overlooked.

Here are three starting pitchers worth backing, and three you’re going to want to fade.


Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

Yovani Gallardo entered the season with lofty expectations after winning 33 games for the Brew Crew over the last two seasons, but Gallardo was slow out of the gate and saw his ERA balloon up to 5.25 through his first 13 starts.

While bettors have quickly gotten away from Gallardo, it may be time to give him another look. Over his last three starts, Gallardo has not allowed an earned run over 21 innings, recording a quality start in each of his last three outings.

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A notable change for Gallardo has been his ability to make opposing hitters miss. Gallardo’s K/9 rate has risen from 5.50 in April to 8.13 in May and June.

Jorge de la Rosa, SP, Colorado Rockies

Coors Field has never been kind to pitchers’ statistics, but Jorge de la Rosa is more than happy to take the ball there. The Rockies are 16-2 in de la Rosa’s last 18 home starts.

The wins are there, but his outings have been other-worldly when he gets away from hitter-friendly Coors Field. Since the start of May, de la Rosa has posted a 1.00 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP on the road.

Another edge for de la Rosa: day games. In six daytime starts this season, de la Rosa is 5-0 with a 1.41 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.

Staying on the field has been an issue for de la Rosa, who managed only 13 total appearances in 2011 and 2012, but he’s healthy at the moment, and for as long as he continues to take the mound every fifth day for the Rockies he’ll be worth a look.

Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Colorado Rockies

Another starter happy to leave Coors Field in his rear-view mirror and take to the road is Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin’s 6-3 record and base 3.92 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP is impressive enough, but he has pitched at a different level on the road.

Chacin has made five starts on the road this season, posting a 2.05 ERA, compared to a 4.92 ERA at home.

Bettors that have backed Chacin in the month of June have profited 2.68 units.


Wade Miley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Without a true ace on the staff the Diamondbacks’ young starters have been left to find their own way, and Wade Miley is lost right now.


It’s been a tale of two seasons for Miley who carried a 3-1 record with a 2.93 ERA through his first seven starts, but since then his season has come unravelled.  Over his last eight outings Miley is 1-5 with a 6.40 ERA, and that number doesn’t account for six additional runs that were unearned.

The Diamondbacks are 0-3 in Miley’s last three starts as a favorite.

Justin Grimm, SP, Texas Rangers

A promising start to the season for Justin Grimm after winning the Rookie of the Month award for April, notching victories in two of his three starts in the month and posting a 1.59 ERA in the process.

Grimm’s success hasn’t carried forward as he has struggled to re-claim his early-season form, posting a 6.79 ERA in May and June while allowing opposing batters to hit at a .310 clip.

Alfredo Figaro, RP, Milwaukee Brewers

Alfredo Figaro’s outing against the Miami Marlins earlier this season has Brewers manager Ron Roenicke in his corner, but the reliever-turned-starter seems better suited for a bullpen role.

Figaro’s base ERA of 4.64 won’t scare too many bettors away, but that number factors in Figaro’s work out of the bullpen. In five starts, Figaro’s ERA jumps up to 6.48. If we remove his lone quality start which came in a blowout of the lowly Marlins Figaro’s ERA climbs even higher, up to 9.00. That’s a tough number to swallow, especially when factoring in the fact that each of Figaro’s five starts have come against teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring.

These numbers aren’t an apparition. In his major league career Figaro has a 3.50 ERA as a reliever, compared to a 7.23 mark as a starter.

The over is 5-0 in Figaro’s five starts this season.

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