MLB Tuesday Preview – Milwaukee vs Cincinnati – 12:35 PM
Before baseball gambling fans turn their attention to other sports betting events this weekend, we have the Saturday MLB game of the day pick for you. It’s time for our weekly baseball picks for online MLB betting action.
Season Record:
Milwaukee: 15-23 SU
Cincinnati: 22-16 SU
Reds Looking To Keep Pace vs. NL Central Foes
MLB Betting – Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
Yovani Gallardo (4-2) vs. Homer Bailey (1-2)
Gallardo vs. Reds Hitting
Since being rocked by the St. Louis Cardinals on April 10th (six runs in five innings), Gallardo has been one of the most effective pitchers in the majors. In his last six starts, Gallardo is 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA, striking out 46 batters in just 35 innings. He has not allowed more than two runs in a game since that debacle against St. Louis. However, those who bet on MLB say the one criticism concerning Gallardo has been his inability to get deep into games. He still walks 3-to-4 batters a game, which raises his pitch count and keeps him from pitching deep. In his current winning streak, Gallardo has pitched past the seventh inning only once. It’s not a huge concern considering he’s continuing to win, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
Despite playing in the same division, Gallardo has little experience against the current Reds squad. Guys like Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Scott Rolen haven’t faced Gallardo enough to make an informed decision about who owns whom. The Red with the most at-bats against Gallardo is Brandon Phillips, who is hitting .308 (4-for-13) with one home run and three RBI’s against the righty. Votto versus Gallardo will be the matchup to watch; Votto leads all Reds in batting average (.292), home runs (8) and RBI’s (24).
Bailey vs. Brewers Hitting
Reds’ fans and the online betting community have been waiting years for Homer Bailey to throw the kind of game he did against Pittsburgh in his last start. The former number-one prospect pitched his first career complete game shutout, striking out six and walking zero batters. It was a methodical destruction of the Bucs, as Bailey only needed 90 pitches (73 for strikes) in order to finish the game. Although his season numbers definitely need work (1-2, 5.66 ERA), it was nice to see Bailey pitch the way scouts once believed him capable of.
Bailey does not have a strong history against the Milwaukee Brewers. In three starts, the righty is 0-2 and has allowed 15 runs in 16 1/3 innings. Luckily for Reds fans, the Brewers best hitter doesn’t have a strong history against Bailey, either. Ryan Braun, who leads the team in batting average and is second in both home runs and RBI’s, does not have the same success against Bailey as he does the rest of the league. Braun is just 1-for-8 against Bailey, and has struck out three times.
Bullpen Comparison
The Brewers bullpen has not been a strength for them this season, especially as it pertains to the closer. Trevor Hoffman’s numbers are downright awful; 16 runs allowed in 12 innings pitched, and four blown saves. Todd Coffey and Carlos Villanueva have been solid, but Hoffman’s lack of production has plagued Milwaukee all season.
Francisco Cordero has been solid for Cincinnati (12 saves), but his low-strikeout rate (only 16 in 19 1/3 innings) is cause for concern for those who bet sports. The Reds do have stud arm in Arthur Rhodes. The big lefty is having a fine start to the season, having allowed only a single run all season; one that happened in the second game of the year. Advantage, Cincinnati.
Outlook
Although Bailey’s last start was very impressive, Gallardo has been putting in impressive starts for much of the season. Plus, Bailey’s best outing was against the Pirates, hardly a National League powerhouse. I see Bailey’s performance more of an aberration as opposed to a new trend from the righty. Once he faces a powerhouse lineup like the Brewers, he should be back to his old disappointing self.
Gambling Trends:
Milwaukee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Milwaukee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Cincinnati is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee’s last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee’s last 8 games on the road
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers
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Poolside Rants hails from beautiful Bozeman Montana by way of Toronto, Canada. (Blame his wife for the move). He’s a Dallas Cowboys football honk. But please….don’t hold that against him. The man knows his sports and has uncanny knowledge when it comes to picking games.
