2011 MLB Baseball Handicapping – 10 Best Closers

MLB Betting – My List Of THE BEST Closers IN 2011

Closers may be popular commodities in fantasy baseball, but they’re often taken for granted in MLB betting circles. After all, most of our bets have to focus on starting pitchers, as we can’t predict when stoppers will be called upon to close out a game.

However, that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t factor closers in at all. For example, a Halladay-versus-Kershaw matchup is likely to be a tight, low-scoring game, isn’t it? So it can help to know which team’s closer is more reliable.

Forget saves leaders. Which guys actually blow the fewest saves? Here are the top 10 closers this season according to what I believe is the most important stat: their save percentage. We’ll stick to closers with 10 or more save opportunities so the sample size is big enough.

Which guys are likely to stay effective? Which guys are smoke and mirrors?

1. Joel Hanrahan, Pirates (14 for 14: 100%)

Hanrahan always had a big strikeout rate but the key for him this season is that he’s throwing strikes. He’s walked just five guys in 24.2 innings. That suggests his stellar start is sustainable.

2. Jose Valverde, Tigers (14 for 14: 100%)

Valverde is the anti-Hanrahan. He hasn’t blown a save yet but he’s allowed three homers and he has 12 walks in 25 innings. It’s only a matter of time before he starts blowing ops.

3. Ryan Madson, Phillies (12 for 12: 100%)

Madson has been an effective reliever for years but always struggled when called upon for spot closer duty, so it’s nice to see him finally settling in. Opponents are batting .209 off him and he hasn’t allowed a homer. He may not give the closer job back when Brad Lidge returns.

4. Leo Nunez, Marlins (19 for 20: 95%)

Who would’ve picked Nunez to be the major-league save leader at this point? He’s traditionally been viewed as a stopgap, as he isn’t a dominating pitcher. He probably won’t be the league’s top closer by season’s end, as he’s more hittable than most closers, but he’s proven that he’s mentally right for the role.

5. J.J. Putz, Diamondbacks (16 for 17: 94%)

Health is the only thing standing in J.J. Putz’s way. He’s an overpowering pitcher whenever his arm physically co-operates. He has a chance to finish the season as the majors’ top closer.

6. Francisco Rodriguez, Mets (16 for 17: 94%)

K-Rod is past his prime but he still has the electric arsenal to blow it by guys. That said, he’s due for a regression. A 2.00 ERA despite a 1.48 WHIP? Very lucky.

7. Chris Perez, Indians (14 for 15: 93%)

Perez is another stopper who has impressive numbers at first glance but could get punished soon for walking too many guys. However, his low strikeout rate combined with zero homers allowed suggests he’s doing a nice job pitching to contact and keeping the ball down in the zone.

8. Heath Bell, Padres (14 for 15: 93%)

Out of everyone on this list, Bell is the guy I give the ball to if I need three outs. He has several seasons worth of elite production, his walk rate is fairly low by closer standards, and he’s unhittable (.181 opponents’ average). What more could you want?

9. Drew Storen, Nationals (11 for 12: 92%)

Storen had the pedigree of Washington’s closer of the future and he’s living up to the hype. His 25:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 0.90 WHIP and .187 opponents’ average remind me of the guy directly above him on this list.

10. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox (10 for 11: 91%)

Tied with Kyle Farnsworth (Rays) and Fernando Salas (Cardinals)

Papelbon, one of the game’s truly elite closers a few years ago, fell on hard times last season because he started walking guys like crazy. It’s very encouraging to see him with just three walks and a whopping 32 strikeouts in 23.2 innings this season. It makes his 3.42 ERA look positively unlucky.

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