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MLB Baseball Cappers Tips

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL HANDICAPPING

Baseball begins and ends with pitching. Because of the number of games and the length of the season, the sport lures as many investors as the others. The structure of odds… no point spread… and the nature of the game however, with the disproportionate emphasis on pitching, baseball must be treated in a different way.

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The role the pitcher plays has been assessed at anywhere between 70 and 90 percent in contributing to the outcome of a game. Therefore, any student of the game begins his calculations with a study not only of the starting pitchers but key relievers as well. It is imperative that the handicapper maintain complete, accurate and current records on all pitchers, concentrating on those who go good against certain teams and those who are usually hit hard by some teams.

A page is devoted to each starting pitcher. It tells when he pitches, the opponent (listed as home or away), innings pitched, hits, runs, earned runs, walks, strikeouts, final score with a designation if he was the winner or loser, and the price of the game along with any noteworthy comments. Next to his name we indicate whether he throws left or right, and last year’s earned-run average. For quick recognition winning efforts are entered in one color and losing efforts in another.

Although this may appear time-consuming, it takes less than a half hour each day to record the entries. At the same time you are scanning the pitching performances you should glance at the lineups to learn whether any regulars were missing.

Basic to any opinion is the past-performance record of each starting pitcher. This includes his history against the opposition along with his present form. The emphasis should be on the latter. Of his past four outings, at least three should have been sharp. It is vital that you check the key relievers for availability.

After the middle of June, teams and pitchers generally settle into a more definitive form. The oddsmakers take note of this. They force you to lay inflated prices.

When this occurs your course of action should be:

1. Search for a live underdog but don’t go against either a hot pitcher or a hot team.

2. Reduce the amount of your activities, limiting your interest to more competitive situations.

My Sportsbook

In baseball handicapping, never leave out ball parks, their configuration, distances from the baselines to the stands, distances down the lines and to other parts of the outfield, surfaces and textures of the playing field, and more.

The umpires are a third team on the field of every game. Their influence doesn’t always show up as positive or negative in measuring them, but it sure shows up in how the teams they umpire might fare. In the rule books, the size of the strike zone is generally indicated by the width of home plate and the height of the batter. However, it is highly unlikely that any two umpires would ever call every pitch the same in any game. So, it stands to reason that the influence of umpiring any game can more often than not be the deciding factor on which team wins or loses.

Players and managers are well aware of this and must constantly try to adjust and live with it. Only one judgmental call by an umpire can be, and often is, the deciding factor in a game. It might be a called ball or strike in a crucial moment of the game, a safe or out call at a given base, a fair or foul ball, or whether the batter went around or didn’t go around on a strike or no-strike decision, and a lot more.

When properly handicapping baseball totals, there’s a lot more revealed than the total runs one might prognosticate will be scored in any given game. When properly and thoroughly done it also accurately predicts who will win the game, and by how many runs.

This in turn should direct one to establishing truer odds on a money line on the game itself.

It’s all interrelated in uncovering the handicapper’s plays on both SIDES and TOTALS. 

Bob Wingerter’s philosophy of handicapping is serious, no-nonsense, he specializes in NFL / NCAA Football…Grab his picks today – CLICK HERE!!!

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Comments

Comments

  1. Great insight into the role pitching plays when handicapping a game. Realizing that they contribute anywhere between 70 -90% to the outcome of the game shows you the importance of understanding a team’s pitching capabilities and tendencies.

  2. Ya Bob knows his stuff doesn’t he? Great read

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