Sunday Night Baseball Pick: N.Y. Yankees vs Boston Red Sox
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Now this is what it’s all about. Say what you want about pretty much any other rivalry in sports but the Yankees and Red Sox are still the standard in bad blood. They clash Sunday night at Fenway Park, where Boston hopes to finally gain some momentum during its rollercoaster season.
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ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Prediction – Sunday, April 18, 8:05 p.m. ET
New York Yankees (20-8, 2nd place in AL East)
Boston Red Sox (15-15, 4th place in AL East)
MLB Odds:
Yankees: Spread: +1.5 (-190) / ML: -105 / Over 9
Red Sox: Spread -1.5 (+160) / ML: -115 / Under 9
The pitching matchup should provide plenty of fireworks, as both A.J. Burnett and Jon Lester can mow guys down with their electric stuff but must brave potent lineups.
Yankees – A.J. Burnett (4-0, 1.99) vs. Red Sox – Jon Lester (2-2, 3.93)
When A.J. Burnett roars to a 4-0 start, we can’t exactly be surprised. Sure, he’s erratic, but he has all the talent in the world, blessed with mid-to-high 90s heat and a power curve. For extended stretches, he puts it all together and throws enough strikes to be effective.
He has a winning record against Boston in his career but hasn’t dominated them by any means. He’s 5-2 with a 4.30 ERA over 13 starts and has allowed 13 homers in 81.2 innings. He’s less effective in his trips to Fenway (5.36 ERA).
No one Boston hitter owns Burnett but it seems everyone gets his licks in once in a while. Adrian Beltre, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz – pretty much the entire lineup has shown power against Burnett, as they all have at least one career homer off him.
Jon Lester had his usual poor April but has very quickly returned to his dominant self, allowing one run over his last 20.2 innings. He’s beatable against the Yankees (3-1, 4.19) but not at Fenway Park. Lester is now 24-6 in his 48 career starts there. 
While I suspect Lester will have trouble against Alex Rodriguez (two homers off Lester in 19 at bats) or at least pitch around him, Burnett can’t avoid any one Boston player since they all have a decent track record against him. Lester should thus get the run support he needs – especially since Burnett is simply due to lay an egg.
Gambling Trends:
NY Yankees are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees’s last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 16 of NY Yankees’s last 22 games on the road
NY Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston’s last 7 games at home
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Boston is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing NY Yankees
Free Yankees vs. Red Sox Sunday Night MLB Pick: Boston
ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Prediction (Shea Matthews’ record: 2-2)
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