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Yankees vs. Red Sox Betting Pick / Preview (Apr. 4)

Shea weighs in with his MLB Predictions for Sunday night. Both teams will send their expensive aces to the hill for Opening Night. C.C. Sabathia takes the mound for New York and Josh Beckett gets the start for the BoSox….

Sunday Night Baseball Pick: Yankees vs Red Sox

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It’s only spring but the Boys of Summer are back. The season kicks off this Sunday night on ESPN with the Yankees and Red Sox renewing their vicious rivalry.

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Let’s dust off our handicapping hats and get the 2010 MLB season started with a sportsbook victory.

ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Prediction – Sunday, April 4, 8:05 p.m. ET

New York Yankees (0-0), first place in AL East
Boston Red Sox (0-0), first place in AL East

MLB Odds:

Yankees: Spread: +1.5 / ML: +100
Red Sox: Spread -1.5 / ML: -120

Both teams will send their expensive aces to the hill for Opening Night. C.C. Sabathia takes the mound for New York and Josh Beckett gets the start for the BoSox.

C.C. Sabathia (2009: 19-8, 3.37 ERA)
Josh Beckett (2009: 17-6, 3.86)

We all know what C.C. Sabathia can do over the course of a full major-league season. The big fella is among baseball’s most dominant and durable starters. However, we also know he takes a while to warm up. In only two months since his career began does C.C. not have a winning record; April is one of them. Sabathia is just 12-12 with a 4.51 ERA over 37 April starts.

Let’s dig deeper and look at Sabathia’s last few season debuts. 2009: six earned runs over 4.1 innings, loss. 2008: five earned runs over 5.1 innings, no decision. His last decent season opener came three years ago and even that was just so-so (three earned runs over six innings, win).

Also, while Sabathia was 3-1 overall against Boston last year, he did his damage at Yankee Stadium. At Fenway Park, he allowed 7 runs over 13.1 innings. Though no current Boston hitter has a particularly outstanding track record against him historically (David Ortiz has a pair of homers but a .269 average), I still see Sabathia following his trend of early-season rust on Sunday night.

Hold the phone. We haven’t discussed Josh Beckett. He had a hideous 7.22 ERA in April last season. Before we assume he’s an early season struggler, however, let’s turn back the clock further. In reality, last year’s horrific start looks like an anomaly. Beckett is 20-11 with a 3.77 ERA all-time in April and 5-2 in his first start of a season. Beckett was also untouchable at Fenway Park last season, going 10-1 with a 3.59 ERA.

I don’t think the Yankees, fresh off a World Series title, will bring the same urgency that the Red Sox will in their home opener after revamping their pitching and defense in the offseason. For that reason plus the very-different April histories of Beckett and Sabathia, I see Boston opening the season with a win.

Gambling Trends:

The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees’s last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees’s last 5 games
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Boston is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games when playing Boston
NY Yankees are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston’s last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston’s last 6 games when playing NY Yankees

Free Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB Pick: Boston

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