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Royals vs. Angels Betting Pick / Preview (July. 4)

Shea weighs in with his MLB Predictions for Sunday night and the Kansas City Royals vs. L.A. Angels….Key trend, Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games…

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Time for all the small-market fans to stop complaining about their teams lacking exposure. In a massive coup, the Kansas City Royals have landed themselves a Sunday Night Baseball game on ESPN. It’s sure to draw some of the year’s lowest ratings but…good for the Royals.

Let’s make a pick.

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Sunday, July 4, 8:15 p.m. ET

Kansas City Royals (34-45, 4th place in AL Central)
Los Angeles Angels (45-36, 2nd place in AL West)

The Royals give one of their least experienced starters a chance to prove himself on the national stage while the Angels counter with an offseason acquisition who is rounding into form after a slow start to the year.

Anthony Lerew (1-1, 3.63)
Joel Pineiro (8-6, 4.23)

It’s hard to know what to make of the Royals’ Anthony Lerew because the sample size is so small. He’s started just eight career games and thrown only 52.1 big-league innings. This year, he’s provided a quality start in two of three attempts and walked a very respectable four batters in 17.1 innings.

His one poor start, during which he allowed four runs, 10 hits and two homers in 5.1 innings against the Nationals, came on the road. Does that mean we should expect Lerew to struggle? Maybe but the small sample size makes Lerew tough to figure out.

At least we know what we get with worm killer extraordinaire Joel Pineiro. He’s put his early-season struggles behind him by allowing three runs or fewer in four straight outings and winning five consecutive starts. Pineiro’s homer rate is starting to trend back downward, as is his walk rate.

Pineiro’s performance against the Royals is right on par with his career averages. He’s 4-4 with a 4.23 ERA in 13 appearances (nine starts) against them compared to 95-85 with a 4.38 ERA in his entire career. Out of the current K.C. regulars, only Jose Guillen has flashed power against Pineiro (two homers in 29 at-bats). But several Royals hit for average against him historically, including Billy Butler (.333), David DeJesus (.360) and Scott Podsednik (.333).

Still, I feel confident about Pineiro on Sunday night. He’s extremely comfortable at Angels Stadium, where he’s 5-2 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this season. He’s also handled much tougher lineups than Kansas City’s during his current hot streak, having beaten the Rangers, Dodgers (twice) and Brewers. I’d continue riding Pineiro and the Angels while they’re sizzling.

Gambling Trends:

Kansas City is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
Kansas City is 4-12 SU in their last 16 games when playing LA Angels
LA Angels are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games when playing Kansas City
LA Angels are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

Sunday Night Baseball FREE PICK for Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels

Pick: Los Angeles Angels

ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Prediction (Shea Matthews’ record: 7-5)

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