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Mets vs. Cardinals Betting Pick / Preview (Apr. 18)

Shea weighs in with his MLB Predictions for Sunday night and the New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals. This matchup pits a great team against a bad team, a great starter against a struggling one, enjoy folks…

Sunday Night Baseball Pick: N.Y. Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals

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The New York Mets’ ship is sinking – or was it already at rock bottom? Either way, things are so desperate that the Mets are reportedly courting former manager Bobby Valentine to make a comeback.

Maybe a win over the Cardinals on Sunday Night Baseball could help woo him?

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ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Prediction – Sunday, April 18, 8:05 p.m. ET

St. Louis Cardinals (6-3, 1st place in NL Central)
New York Mets (3-6, 5th place in NL East)

MLB Odds:

Mets: Spread: +1.5 (-105) / ML: +220 / Over 7.5
Cardinals: Spread -1.5 (-115) / ML: -260 / Under 7.5

The pitching matchup is a microcosm of how each team’s season is going. John Maine is desperately trying to recapture anything close to his form of the last few seasons; Adam Wainwright simply hopes to continue his dominance.

John Maine (0-1, 13.50 ERA)
Adam Wainwright (2-0, 1.20 ERA)

Looking at John Maine’s horrific numbers early this season, it’s hard to believe this is a pitcher with a 40-34 career record and 4.35 lifetime ERA, which are useful middle-of-the-rotation numbers. In the past, Maine walked his share of guys but he was tough to hit, keeping opponents between .212 and .248 for five straight seasons.

This year, opponents are batting .405 off Maine through two starts.

Does he have a chance to right the ship? Probably not yet, as he’s 1-2 with a 6.23 ERA against St. Louis in his career. Take a wild guess as to which guys have Maine’s number.

Mr. Albert Pujols hits .455 with two homers and has 11 RBI in just 11 at-bats against Maine in his career. Matt Holliday hasn’t faced Maine often but is four for seven (.571) against him.

Given how amazing Pujols in particular has been so far this year, batting .400 with five homers and 15 RBI in nine games through Thursday, we have to assume he’ll feast on the struggling Maine.

Meanwhile, Cards starter Adam Wainwright looks like he’s still sore about missing out on the National League Cy Young last season.

He’s cruised through his first two outings, allowing two runs over 15 innings and winning twice. He’s 13-3 since last July. He also loves pitching at Busch Stadium; he has a tiny 2.69 ERA at home in his career.

Funnily enough, Wainwright has never started a game against the Mets in his career, only facing them as a reliever (though he did dominate them in the 2006 playoffs in that role). He’ll have to stay alert against new Mets arrival Jason Bay, who bats .353 off him with a pair of homers in 17 at-bats against Wainwright.

The best advice I can give bettors on Sunday night: don’t overthink this matchup.

It pits a great team against a bad team, a great starter against a struggling one, and all the historical numbers suggest the Cards will lay a beatdown on the hapless Mets in this matchup.

Gambling Trends:

St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Mets
St. Louis is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home
NY Mets are 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
NY Mets are 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
NY Mets are 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
NY Mets are 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis

Free Mets vs. Cardinals Sunday Night MLB Pick: St. Louis

ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Prediction (Shea Matthews’ record: 1-1)

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