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Cardinals vs Braves Betting Pick / Preview (Sept. 12)

Sunday Night Baseball Pick: Cardinals vs Braves

After an 8-5 start, I’ve lost seven of my last eight Sunday Night Baseball picks. How cruel is this slump? Last week, I bet against Jonathan Sanchez, who was 0-5 with a 6.04 ERA against the Dodgers, and he tossed seven scoreless innings against them. Of course he did.

Let’s try to right the ship with a crucial matchup between Wild Card hopefuls St. Louis and Atlanta this Sunday. Maybe you should bet against my pick.

ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Prediction (Shea Matthews’ record: 9-12)

Sunday, September 12, 8:05 p.m. ET

St. Louis Cardinals (73-65, 2nd place in NL Central)

Atlanta Braves (80-61, 2nd place in NL East)

Statistically, the pitching matchup features two guys at opposite ends of the success spectrum: the struggling Kyle Lohse and Cy Young contender Tim Hudson.

Kyle Lohse (2-7, 7.13)

Tim Hudson (15-7, 2.41)

Two seasons ago, St. Louis’ Kyle Lohse was quite a success story. Under masterful pitching coach Dave Duncan’s tutelage, he became a solid No. 2 starter, going 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA. But injuries have plagued him since that season, which may go down as his career year. 2010 has been a nightmare for him for Lohse, primarily because he’s been so darned hittable. Opponents bat a whopping .335 off him this season, which is just two points lower than the National League leader Carlos Gonzalez’s current average.

When a pitcher struggles as badly as Lohse has this season, it’s difficult to use his historical numbers to predict performance. For example, he’s 2-1 with a so-so 4.50 ERA against Atlanta in his career. But does that matter given how Bad Lohse has been this season? He’s allowed 28 runs in 28.1 innings on the road in 2010. Since the All-Star break, he has more earned runs (21) than innings pitched (18.1).

Though Tim Hudson has stumbled slightly with a 4.72 ERA in September thus far, he’s been phenomenal this season, holding opponents to a .223 average and keeping the ball in the park. Hudson is a force at Turner Field; he’s 10-4 with a 1.97 ERA there this season.

Hudson will have to watch out for Albert Pujols, a lifetime .435 hitter against him, and Colby Rasmus, who has taken him deep before and busted out with a two-homer effort on Thursday against the Braves.

Considering my brutal track record with picks of late, twisted logic would suggest the Cardinals are the play. But I’m sticking to my guns. Things will even out. And nothing about Kyle Lohse’s numbers suggests he’s about to pitch a gem. Have a little faith and make the smart pick: the Braves.

Sunday Night Baseball FREE PICK for St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves

Pick: Atlanta Braves

By Cappers Picks

Articles on CappersPicks.com are written by Q (the Head Honcho) at Cappers Picks or by our resident "in house" handicapper Razor Ray Monohan! Enjoy the free picks folks! "Pad that bankroll one day at a time!"