Sunday Night Baseball Pick: Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins
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Over the last several seasons, the Angels and Twins have both been blessed by a magical winning pixie dust. No matter the adversity, no matter what star players they lose, they find a way to win. This year, the twins are holding up their end of bargain, leading the American League Central by four games and winning eight of 10 even with Justin Morneau on the DL (concussion).
The Angels haven’t been as good, playing .500 ball, but they’re seven games back of Texas – not an insurmountable deficit. Could a win on Sunday Night Baseball give the Angels the momentum surge they seek in the Dog Days of August?
Sunday, August 22, 8:10 p.m. ET
Los Angeles Angels (61-61, 2nd place in AL West)
Minnesota Twins (70-51, 1st place in AL Central)
The pitching matchup features two talented hurlers, one of whom has performed to expectations this year and one who hasn’t.
Jeff Weaver (11-8, 3.11)
Scott Baker (10-9, 4.85)
2010 may go down as the year Jered Weaver made the jump from No. 2 to No. 1 starter. With a major-league leading 186 strikeouts in 168 innings this season, he’s shown he can be a true ace. Though he’s just 3-3 since the All-Star break, it’s hardly his fault. Weaver’s ERA has actually come down ; it’s at 2.87 in his seven starts since the break. 
Though he’s been pedestrian on the road this season, going 6-6 with a 4.50 ERA, Weaver usually handles the Twins well. He’s 4-1 against them with a 3.64 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his career. Weaver is, however, consistently susceptible to the long ball. Both Delmon Young and Jason Kubel have taken him deep in the past and both guys have flashed plenty of power this year, so Weaver will have to tread carefully.
Scott Baker can be maddening for bettors. Looking at his numbers, you see vast potential. His 121 strikeouts compared to just 31 walks over 144.2 innings show that he has fantastic command of his stuff. But he’s almost too accurate; he hits the strike zone so often that bats connect on his pitches all the time. He’s allowed 21 homers and a .284 average this season.
Baker is 7-3 at Target Field this year but the Angels have really owned him historically. He’s 0-5 with a 5.82 ERA over eight career outings versus L.A. And it’s not even the big bats that get to him. The role players – Maicer Izturis, Eric Aybar, Juan Rivera, Alberto Callaspo – are the ones with the big success against Baker in the past.
With the Angels trotting out their ace and with Baker never solving the Angels before, I’ll stick with history and pick L.A. to win on the road.
Gambling Trends:
LA Angels are 7-18 SU in their last 25 games on the road
LA Angels are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Angels
Minnesota is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Angels
LA Angels are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
LA Angels are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games
Sunday Night Baseball FREE PICK for Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins
Pick: Los Angeles Angels
ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Prediction (Shea Matthews’ record: 9-9)
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