Cincinnati Reds (51-40) vs Atlanta Braves (52-39)
After winning yesterday, the Cincinnati Reds have the 4th best record in the National League but unfortunately that is only good for third place in their own division.
Thursday July 11
Turner Field – Atlanta, GA
7:10PM
Probable Starters:
CIN: Mat Latos (R)
ATL: Tim Hudson (R)
Moneyline: Atlanta -119, Cincinnati +109
O/U: 7.5
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Cincinnati
Thankfully the second Wild Card slot means it will not be for all for not if things stay as they are. The Reds are a fearsome team. Their pitching staff is full of power arms and they have a lineup ready to explode at any moment. 1B Joey Votto is leading the team in hitting but they need to get more production out of him in the middle of that lineup.
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It seems that he is maybe too interested in getting on base rather than driving in runs
Reds starter Mat Latos is enjoying a great first half with an 8-2 record heading into his last start before the break – the big righty is also 5th in the National League in punchouts. Latos has been pitching well but not always getting the support he deserves. He has split his last 4 starts, picking up his only 2 losses of the season, while getting just 2 runs of support combined.
He has fared well against Atlanta in the past with a sub 2.50 ERA. That figure drops to 1.38 at Turner Field so you can expect a quality performance. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
Atlanta
The Atlanta Braves dropped their closing game of their series against Miami on Wednesday. They were sunk after giving up 4 runs in the first and kind of mailed it in after that. I am amazed that the Braves are still able to stay in first place given they have three regulars – OF B.J. Upton, 2B Dan Uggla and OF Jason Heyward – all hitting below .230.
OF Justin Upton is not doing much better than that as he has faded badly after a hot April. Their starting pitching has really carried them with all 5 of their regular starters sporting ERAs of 4.03 or better.
Atlanta has to be hoping that veteran righthander Tim Hudson might finally be coming around. He was very sharp in his last start at Philadelphia, a place where he has traditionally struggled. He has really been two different pitchers this year with a perfect record and sub 3 ERA at home while getting hammered on the road. The biggest contrast has been in BAA.
Batters are hitting below .200 against Hudson at Turner Field but that number jumps all the way to .281 on the road. Surprising splits given his experience and the fact that Turner is considered a favourable park to hitters.
I am expecting the Reds lineup to be more of a problem for Hudson than the Braves will be for Latos Cincinnati especially tough on righties because all their best power hitters are lefthanded. and Jay Bruce has been especially good after getting off to a slow start.
With the exception of Heyward all those struggling Braves bats bat righty, Latos might have a field day as the Reds make a statement in the opener of their final game before the All-Star break.
O/U Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Cincinnati 7 – Atlanta 3
