Cubs (45-55) vs Giants (46-55)
Chicago is definitely playing for next year at this point so it is going to be tough to try and forecast them for the rest of the season.
Friday July 26
AT&T Park – San Francisco, CA
10:15PM
Probable Starters:
CHC: Edwin Jackson (R)
SF: Matt Cain (R)
Moneyline: San Francisco -170, Chicago +160
O/U: 7
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Chicago
Prior to making moves (and they made a lot of them) this was a more competitive club than expected but they are trapped inside the National League Central which is very tough.
They are only -20 in terms of run differential on the season but I think they are due for a big slide, especially since their biggest bat – OF Alfonso Soriano – was just traded away. (This is probably official by the time you read this).
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Cubs starter Edwin Jackson has already matched his loss total from a season ago with 11. This guy keeps finding work and is really not that terrible a pitcher but the numbers are telling us otherwise this season.
Jackson is second to last in losses in the NL but the fact is you could make a pretty good staff with guys who are already in double digits in this category with Cole Hamels, Dan Haren, Tim Lincecum et al.
Jackson gets bumped up a slot with Matt Garza gone and he has been sharper lately having given up on 3ER over his last two starts combined.
San Francisco
The Giants have kind of cratered, sitting in 4th place in the NL West just a game ahead of San Diego right now. However, Los Angeles can`t keep up the pace they have been playing at forever and if the Giants can just start beating the teams they are supposed to they could get back in the race believe it or not. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
This series against Chicago is just such one of those opportunities. The Cubs have already written off the season and don`t really have many more moves they can make. It is time to take advantage of them in their weakened state.
Starter Matt Cain may not be with Jackson and Co. in the double digit loss club (yet) but that does not make his season any less of a disappointment. His ERA is an even 5, about double what most expect and it has been a combination of a few factors. First, he is walking more batters than he has since 2008 which is why his WHIP is so high; and second, he is on pace for a career high in homers allowed.
Put the two together and it is easy to see how his ERA has jumped while his BAA has held steady at career norms. If San Francisco is going to make a move he has to be better and more consistent.
He has had way too many completely forgettable outings.
You see that total of 7 and you can see the respect that there is still is for Matt Cain and the Giants. The combined ERA for these two starters is over 10 yet the total is set like it is Clayton Kershaw vs Cain from two years ago. San Francisco is a good bet on the ML but the total is also a great value opportunity.
Take which event one you like or maybe even parlay them together.
O/U Pick: Over
Score Prediction: San Francisco 6 – Chicago 3
