MLB Playoff Betting – Yankees vs Twins Game 2 Preview & Pick
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The Minnesota Twins had the New York Yankees right where they wanted them in Game 1 of the American League Division Series. They flew out to an early lead and had the Target Field fans in a frenzy. But the Bronx Bombers aren’t the World Series champs for nothin’. They fought back. Mark Teixeira happened. Mariano Rivera happened.
AMERICAN LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES: New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
Game 2: Tonight, 6:07 p.m. ET
Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28) vs Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75)
MLB odds: Yankees -115, Twins +105
Suddenly, the Twins have lost their home field advantage heading into Game 2.
The Twins have successfully turned Carl Pavano back into a 200-plus-inning horse – just as he was before he joined the New York Yankees and tanked his career a few years back. He’s gone 22-15 with seven complete games since joining Minnesota midway through 2009.
Pavano faced the Yankees in last year’s ALDS and sparkled, striking out nine batters and allowing two runs over seven innings, but he was a hard-luck loser in that start. Funnily enough, the man who outdueled him was the same man who will start opposite him tonight: Andy Pettitte. 
The 38-year-old Pettitte is almost always a stellar sportsbook bet in October, as he’s Major League Baseball’s all-time playoff wins leader. But he’s not an automatic pick tonight. He really struggled down the stretch this season, failing to pitch more than four innings in three of his last four outings. Though plenty of numbers favor the big lefty – he’s 11-5 all-time against Minnesota and has two playoff wins against the Twins on top of that – he’s battling a stiff back.
Bettors have a tough decision here. On one hand, the Yankees probably smell blood and Pettitte has been the man in the postseason time and time again. On the other, the Twinkies will be a desperate team tonight and Pettitte’s back is wonky.
Since he at least showed good stuff in his last start, striking out eight Red Sox in four innings, I’ll roll the dice and hope Pettitte is recovered enough to go five or six frames tonight. I like the Yanks to hit a few long balls off Pavano, who did surrender two in his playoff loss last year against them. Pettitte will do enough to hold the fort before giving way to the pen. And it’s lights out once Kerry Wood and Mariano Rivera get the ball.
ALDS Betting Trends:
NY Yankees are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games
Minnesota is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games at home
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
NY Yankees are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games when playing Minnesota
NY Yankees are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
Pick: Yankees -115
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