MLB Playoff Betting – Yankees vs Twins Game 1 Preview & Pick
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The New York Yankees’ official playoff title defense begins with their American League Division Series matchup against the Minnesota Twins. The Bronx Bombers travel to beautiful new Target Field Wednesday night.
AMERICAN LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES: New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
Game 1: Wednesday, October 6, 8:37 p.m. ET
C.C. Sabathia (21-7, 3.18) vs Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62)
MLB odds: Yankees -140, Twins +130
It’s telling that the Yankees don’t have home-field advantage in these 2010 playoffs; in many ways, they’re not the same team they were a year ago. Are they good enough to topple Minnesota, one of baseball’s hottest teams down the stretch this season?
Game 1 should treat us to plenty of fire on the mound as each team goes with its top power pitcher.
It shouldn’t come as a huge surprise to see the Yankees favored on the road to open the series. These are still the defending world champs and their Game-1 starter, C.C. Sabathia, is all-world. The giant lefty has won at least 17 games and posted an ERA of 3.37 for four straight seasons. More importantly, in three career ALDS starts, Sabathia is 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 17.2 innings.
As a former Cleveland Indian and AL Central dweller, he also has an extensive track record against the Minnesota twins, going 13-8 with a 3.05 ERA over 28 career starts.
The Twins’ offense doesn’t get talked up the way New York’s, Tampa’s or Texas’ does but it’s deceptively solid, even though Justin Morneau is out for the season with a concussion. Delmon Young really stepped up in his absence, knocking in 112 runs this year. Jason Kubel, Jim Thome and Michael Cuddyer have good pop and Joe Mauer is a hitting machine despite his power outage this season. 
But there’s one problem: as good as those guys are, they all struggle against Sabathia historically. Young bats .200 off him, Thome .148, Cuddyer .200 and even Mauer just .217. Kubel has only faced C.C. twice – and gone hitless.
Twins starter Francisco Liriano, a prime candidate for Comeback Player of the Year, has a 3.12 career ERA against the Yankees but has no wins to show for it despite starting four times against them. Historically, he’s kept big sluggers like Alex Rodriguez (.111) and Mark Teixeira (.188) in check, not to mention the resurgent Curtis Granderson (.182), who has struck out 12 times in just 22 at-bats versus Liriano.
But the older, craftier vets like Jorge Posada (.500) and Derek Jeter (.385) have solved Liriano in the past. The Yankees should also strongly consider dusting off platoon player Marcus Thames in this matchup. He has huge power and a great track record against Liriano, having taken him deep three times in just 14 plate appearances against him.
I think the Yankees’ lack of starting pitching depth will eventually give them trouble in these playoffs. Phil Hughes is tired, Andy Pettitte is old, A.J. Burnett doesn’t look like he’ll be a starter in these playoffs and Javier Vazquez was a huge failure this year. But the one sure thing is Mr. C.C. Sabathia. As long as he’s on the hill, the Yanks are as close to unbeatable as a team can get. I think they’ll take Game 1. But this could still be a long series.
ALDS Betting Trends:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees’s last 6 games on the road
NY Yankees are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
Minnesota is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games at home
Pick: Yankees -140
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