MLB Playoff Betting – Rays vs. Rangers Game 3 Preview & Pick
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For the Tampa Bay Rays, Murphy’s Law has ruled their American League Division Series matchup against the Texas Rangers. They couldn’t buy a hit in Game 1 against Cliff Lee. They struggled just as much against C.J. Wilson and got burned by a blown umpire call in Game 2.
Now, they face elimination on the road in Game 3.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
Game 3: Saturday, October 9, 5:07 p.m. ET
Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91) vs Colby Lewis (12-13, 3.72)
MLB odds: Rays +120, Rangers -130
Will the Rays keep their season alive on Saturday?
Of all the guys for the Rays to start in an elimination game, Matt Garza may be the best choice. In four career playoff starts, he’s 2-1 with a 3.96 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 25 innings. He also has a 5-3 record, 3.97 ERA and 62 strikeouts in 56.2 innings against Texas in his career.
More specifically, Garza has succeeded in the past against most of the Rangers’ top sluggers, holding Michael Young to a .263 average, Ian Kinsler to .227, and Josh Hamilton to .133. Not all the numbers favor Garza, however, He posted a 5.88 ERA in September this season . Vladimir Guerrero is also a .308 lifetime hitter with a homer in 13 at-bats against him. 
However, Garza’s performance won’t mean a thing unless the Rays start hitting. In 18 innings this postseason, they’ve scored one run, tallied eight hits (.125 average) and struck out 23 times. They’re also 1 for 13 with runners in scoring position. That’s completely unacceptable for a team with World Series aspirations.
Could Colby Lewis give them an opening? The Rangers’ Game-3 starter was a real breath of fresh air this season, flirting with 200 strikeouts upon returning after several successful years in Japan. But he did tire a bit as the season progressed. His ERA climbed every month from June to September; after the All-Star break, he went 4-8.
Lewis has never started a playoff game before, so it’s tough to predict how he’ll fare in Game 3. With Garza, we at least have an idea of what to expect. He’s won big playoff games before. I also think the Rays’ bats simply can’t be this bad for this long. Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford in particular have to snap out of it at some point.
I definitely believe the Rays are in huge trouble in the ALDS but I think Garza and a few long overdue hits will keep them alive for at least one more game.
ALDS Betting Trends:
TAMPA BAY is 31-50 (-22.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 12-29 (-19.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 4-4 (+0.8 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)
TEXAS is 179-148 (+27.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 52-39 (+15.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Pick: Rays +120
