MLB Playoff Betting – Braves vs Giants Game 1 Preview Preview & Pick
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The Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants were the last teams to qualify for the 2010 playoffs, both reaching the big dance by winning on the final Sunday.
It’s thus fitting to see these two fiery, amped up squads go head to head in National League Division Series action.
Let’s break down Game 1.
NATIONAL LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES: Altanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants
Game 1: Thursday, October 7, 9:37 p.m. ET
Derek Lowe (16-12, 4.00) vs Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43)
MLB odds: Braves +133, Giants -153
No Tommy Hanson? No Tim Hudson? Derek Lowe seems like an odd pick to start Game 1 for the Braves at first glance but Bobby Cox’s logic makes sense if you look closer. Lowe finished the season absolutely on fire. He went 5-0 with a 1.17 ERA over five September starts. He also went 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA in his two outings against the Giants this season.
Better yet for Altanta, he’s experienced in big games. Lowe has a 3.33 ERA in the playoffs and has made 10 career postseason starts. 
The Giants’ lineup may not seem like a particularly tough matchup for Lowe on paper. They hit just .257 overall and scored fewer runs than any other team to reach the postseason.
But San Francisco’s offense did sneakily improve as the season progressed. Sensational rookie catcher Buster Posey gave the team a huge spark once he became a starter, batting .305 with 18 homers and 67 RBI in just 108 games.
The Giants lack star power aside from him but have plenty of tough outs with decent pop – like Aubrey Huff or even the surprising Juan Uribe, who hit 24 dingers this season.
The Giants also must feel pretty good sending fireballer Tim Lincecum to the hill. Tiny Tim struck out 232 guys and won 16 games this season – but still had a “bad” year by his standards. He’s just as good against the Braves as he is against pretty much every team. In eight career starts against them, he’s 6-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 61 strikeouts in 53 innings.
However, a few of the Braves have decent histories against Lincecum. Steady Brian McCann bats .381 off him, Derek Lee .375 and midseason acquisition Alex Gonzalez is a .400 hitter against him.
This series will be all about pitching; it features the two playoff teams with the lowest ERAs and the two playoff teams with the fewest runs scored. Game 1 should be no exception; I’d bet under any posted run total in this one.
As hot as Lowe is right now, I still like the Giants to take Game 1. Lincecum will be fired up in his first career playoff start and he actually finished 2010 just as strongly as Lowe did, going 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA in September.
Go with San Fran in the opener of what should be a very close series.
NLDS Betting Trends:
ATLANTA is 1-6 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 35-46 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 92-71 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 101-61 (+23.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 91-69 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 63-45 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 68-51 (+12.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ATLANTA is 35-46 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ATLANTA is 22-10 (+12.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 64-44 (+7.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
Pick: Giants -153
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