MLB Predictions: Braves vs Nats Lines
The Washington Nationals host the Atlanta Braves on Thursday in the opening game of a four-game set at Nationals Park. The Nationals are happy to be home after a long West Coast road trip, while the Braves will be opening up an 11-game road trip.
Atlanta Braves (36-35) at Washington Nationals (37-33)
Date: Thursday, June 19, 2014
Time: 7:05 PM ET
Venue: Nationals Park
City: Washington, D.C.
O/U Odds: 7.5
Money Line: Washington -142, Atlanta +132
Pitching Matchup: RH Gavin Floyd (1-2, 2.98 ERA) at RH Jordan Zimmermann (5-3, 2.98 ERA)
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The Nationals will be in good hands in the opener of this series, sending out Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann could have had a better start to the year, but he’s turned a corner and has been dealing of late, which brings back memories of the terrific run he went on a year ago.
Zimmermann had a 4.07 ERA through his first 10 starts on the year, but three dominant outings have that number down to 2.98. Zimmerman has allowed only one run over his last three starts, putting in 25 innings of work, lasting at least eight innings each time.
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In those 25 innings of work, Zimmermann allowed only 10 hits and walked just two batters while striking out 21. His most recent outing resulted in a tough luck loss against the Cardinals. Zimmerman went eight innings strong against the Cardinals, but he gave up a home run to Matt Adams in the second inning that would stand as the only run of the game.
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Gavin Floyd counters for the Braves. He’s come crashing back down to Earth after a red hot start for the Braves. Floyd helped the team to wins in three of his first four starts with the big club, but he’s now guided the team to losses in three of his last four starts.
His last outing was his worst of the season as he surrendered a season-high four runs to the Los Angeles Angels. Floyd gave up two dingers in that game, also a season-high. After years in the American League with the Chicago White Sox, National League hitters are starting to figure him out. Floyd struck out 24 batters in his first four starts, compared with 15 in his last four starts.
The Braves’ offense has been shaky of late, particularly when they’ve taken to the road. Now they’ll be going up against a strong pitcher in Jordan Zimmermann who is at the top of his game right now, and that is a recipe for a long day for the Braves.
As for Floyd, he’s been the recipient of plenty of good luck, but his luck is running out. His 2.98 ERA masks the fact that he’s surrendered seven unearned runs in his eight starts – that’s nearly an additional run per game.
The Nationals are 24-9 in Zimmermann’s last 33 home starts, and they are 5-1 in their last six when playing the opening game of a series.
The play: Washington -142
