Braves (77-49) vs Cardinals (73-53)
The Atlanta Braves have the best record in the Majors and should be pumped to face off with a potential playoff opponent in St. Louis.
Thursday August 22
Busch Stadium – St. Louis, MO
8:15PM
Probable Starters:
ATL: Paul Maholm (L)
STL: Joe Kelly (R)
Moneyline: St. Louis -135, Atlanta +125
O/U: 8
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Atlanta
The Braves have cooled since their long winning streak going just 6-4 in their last 10 but their lead in the National League East is so large (15.5 games) that they have to focus on the challenges outside the division. Speaking of challenges the Braves just lost a key contributor when OF Jason Heyward had his jaw broken by a pitch last night.
He had been sizzling in August and made the team much more lethal when they moved him into the leadoff spot.
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After such a promising start lefty Paul Maholm has been fading fast of late. He has lost his last three starts and in the last two failed to pitch even 5 innings.
Throughout his career he has been pretty consistent across the months so a sudden change in his performance is surprising. Those three rough outings were before a stint on the disabled list for a bum wrist which perhaps was affecting him more than he let on.
This is his first start off the DL and his road numbers are scary this season – 6+ ERA. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
St. Louis
The race in the National League Central is getting extra juicy with Pittsburgh, St. Louis and Cincinnati all within a few games of each other. It is going to be fun watching them square off down the stretch but this weekend the opponent is Atlanta, the best team in the league. The Braves swept the Cards at home last month so St. Louis will be looking not just to win but to send a message right back.
They have their three best pitchers lined up after this one which should make it a fun series.
Righty Joe Kelly is the 4th starter on what may be the best staff in the National League. St. Louis has won 6 of his last 7 starts and in three of those games he has not given up an earned run. The lone loss in that string was to Atlanta but you can’t blame Kelly as that was one of those outing he didn’t give up anything.
The problem was that the Cardinals didn’t score any either, losing 2-0. Kelly is solid as a favourite but you should know his numbers say he prefers pitching on the road.
This one seems like a no-brainer to me to take the over. You have a visiting pitcher off a DL stint who has been getting hammered on the road against a pitcher who gets hit hard at home. Plus two offenses that are more than capable of covering the total on their own.
St. Louis is the side to play but I think there is better value on the over.
O/U Pick: Over
Score Prediction: St. Louis 7 – Atlanta 4
