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Braves vs. Phillies MLB Pick / Gambling Preview (July. 6)

MLB Tuesday Preview – Atlanta vs Philadelphia

Before baseball gambling fans turn their attention to other sports betting events this weekend, we have the Tuesday MLB game of the day pick for you. It’s time for our weekly baseball picks for online MLB betting action.

Season Record:
Atlanta: 48-35 SU
Philadelphia: 43-38 SU

Jurrjens Continues Comeback Against Phillies

MLB Betting – Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

Jair Jurrjens (1-3) vs. Cole Hamels (6-7)

Jurrjens vs. Phillies Hitting

Jair Jurrjens will be making his second start since spending two months on the DL because of a strained hamstring. Winless before the disabled stint, Jurrjens was able to win in his comeback appearance, holding the Nationals to one run over five innings last week. It was a very welcome sight for Braves fans who had grown frustrated with Jurrjens lack of production before getting injured. It may take a start or two before Jurrjens is fully back in a rhythm, but it’s a huge load off of his back to get his first win so early in his injury comeback.

Jurrjens has had some success against Philly in the past, going 3-3 with a 2.35 ERA lifetime against the Phillies. The right-hander hasn’t allowed Philadelphia’s best hitters to get the best of him (Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard are all hitting under .275 against Jurrjens), and that’s led to his success. The only Phillies regular with any substantial success against Jurrjens is Chase Utley (3 HR’s in 22 AB’s); lucky for Atlanta fans Utley is on the DL.

Hamels vs. Braves Hitting

After an encouraging May, Hamels has spent the last month and a half regressing into the sub-par pitcher the baseball world saw last year. He is 1-5 in his last seven starts, and has failed to provide the stability needed as a legit number two starter. Those familiar with online betting know the frustration Hamels has caused fantasy owners this season.

It won’t get any easier against one of the top offenses in the National League. Hamels knows first-hand how potent the Braves bats can be; on June 1st Atlanta crushed the Phillies 7-3, sending Hamels to the showers in the first inning after getting three very quick runs. Martin Prado leads the NL in batting average, and if you bet on MLB you know Troy Glaus has put up some pretty impressive numbers as well (15 HR’s, 56 RBI’s). No Jason Heyward (DL) will help Hamels, but it may not be enough.

Bullpen Comparison

Billy Wagner anchors a bullpen that ranks as one of the better units in the National League. Wagner’s 17 saves and 1.35 ERA rank him near the top in NL. Set-up man Jonny Venters has thrown 37 1/3 innings and sports a miniscule 1.21 ERA and averages over a strikeout an inning. Eric O’Flaherty has allowed only one home run in over 30 innings pitched. Like I said, a very good group of relievers.

Looking at their numbers, the Phillies seem to be going with a closer-by-committee strategy; three of their regular relievers have at least three saves, and none have more than five. It speaks to the fact that Philadelphia is still searching for that perfect combination of relievers to close out the game. Brad Lidge has the experience, but isn’t consistent enough right now to be handed the full reigns. J.C. Romero is a likely possibility as well, as is Jose Contreras. Until the Phillies figure out how they’ll close games, the ‘pen will continue its current state of ‘meh.’

Outlook

Jurrjens questionable health and Hamels’ inconsistency rules out the possibility of a pitcher’s duel, although stranger things have happened. Hamels seems to be beaten by good teams, and the Atlanta Braves are a hell of a good team this year. Neither starter may pitch a gem, but if you’re betting, count on the Braves getting to Hamels more often than the Phillies bats get to the Jurrjens.

Gambling Trends:

Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia’s last 11 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta’s last 11 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Pick: Atlanta Braves

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Poolside Rants hails from beautiful Bozeman Montana by way of Toronto, Canada. (Blame his wife for the move). He’s a Dallas Cowboys football honk. But please….don’t hold that against him. The man knows his sports and has uncanny knowledge when it comes to picking games.

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