MLB Thursday Preview – Arizona vs Detroit
Before baseball gambling fans turn their attention to other sports betting events this weekend, we have the Tuesday MLB game of the day pick for you. It’s time for our weekly baseball picks for online MLB betting action.
Season Record:
Arizona: 26-42 SU
Detroit: 37-29 SU
Jackson Makes Return to Motor City
MLB Betting – Arizona Diamondbacks @ Detroit Tigers
Edwin Jackson (3-6) vs. Rick Porcello (4-6)
Jackson vs. Detroit Hitting
Last season Edwin Jackson had breakout year with the Detroit Tigers, going 13-9 with a 3.62 ERA. A lot of expectations were put on Jackson when he was traded to Arizona, and suffice to say he has yet to live up to them. Jackson is 3-6 with a 5.18 ERA, and has been one of the bigger busts of the season. What’s frustrating is that sometimes Jackson does pitch amazingly (8 IP, 0 ER, 12 K’s vs. Florida on May 17th), but most of the time it’s too many walks and too little control to pass as an effective starter. His potential will keep him employed for the near future, but he needs to find his 2009-form if he wants his baseball future to last long.
Playing for Detroit last season has given Jackson insight into the hitters that other pitchers may not have; conversely, the Tigers offense knows Jackson’s tendencies more than other teams. So if you’re betting, consider that a wash. Detroit has a pretty solid offense, once again led by Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera leads the Tigers in batting average, home runs and RBI’s, and ranks near or at the top in the major leagues in those categories. Add in the revamped bat of Magglio Ordonez (.308, 8 HR, 43 RBI’s) and there’s a 1-2 punch that can give Jackson headaches.
Porcello vs. Diamondbacks Hitting
Speaking of disappointing pitchers, Rick Porcello has been just that for the Detroit Tigers. If you bet on MLB, you know that a lot of expectations were put on Porcello this season after a strong rookie campaign last year. A 4-6 record, coupled with a 6.09 ERA and 1.69 WHIP, does not equal a very good season. Porcello’s last outing was his worst of the season, as he allowed eight runs in just 3 1/3 innings against the White Sox. Also troubling is Porcello’s lack of strikeouts and penchants for walks; the right hander has just 29 K’s in 65 innings pitched, and has given up 21 free passes.
Porcello has never faced the Diamondbacks in his career, and only one player on the D-Backs roster now (Adam LaRoche) has ever faced Porcello. A clean slate may work in the second-year pitcher’s favour, but with the way he’s been pitching as of late it may not matter at all. Lucky for Porcello is that Arizona has one of the most inconsistent offenses in the league. Sure, there is talent, like Mark Reynolds or Chris Young, but they haven’t been able to put anything together to make any sort of a serious run. It’s why the D-Backs sit last in the NL West.
Bullpen Comparison
There are a couple of very strong arms in the Detroit ‘pen, and they’ve been able to counteract some of the poorer arms. Joel Zumaya is having a great year, averaging a strikeout an innings and sporting a 1.87 ERA. But closer Jose Valverde is the stud of the group. Along with 14 saves, Valverde has a miniscule 0.64 ERA.
The D-Backs bullpen is one of the worst in the major leagues. Of the four relievers who have pitched more than 20 innings, the lowest ERA is 3.34. That’s not bad for a regular relieve, but not good enough for best ERA in the ‘pen. Two of the regular relievers have ERA’s of over 8.00, including closer Chad Qualls (12 saves, 8.64 ERA). It’s far from a sure thing when Arizona has a lead late in the game.
Outlook
Arizona is in the midst of a double-digit losing streak on the road; they just aren’t a good team this year. Their offense is inconsistent and their pitching isn’t good enough to counteract that. Conversely, Detroit is just a couple of games back from the division lead, and sport an offense that can rival any other team. If you’re betting on this matchup of underachieving starters, go with the team with the good offense.
Gambling Trends:
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona
Arizona is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Pick: Detroit Tigers
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Poolside Rants hails from beautiful Bozeman Montana by way of Toronto, Canada. (Blame his wife for the move). He’s a Dallas Cowboys football honk. But please….don’t hold that against him. The man knows his sports and has uncanny knowledge when it comes to picking games.
