MLB Betting – Yankees vs Tigers Game 4 NLDS Preview & Pick
Will Tigers closer Jose Valverde’s prophecy that “the series is already over” after Game 2 come true? Detroit followed up with a 5-4 win over the Yankees last night to take a 2-1 stranglehold in the American League Division Series.
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Date: Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Venue: Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
Broadcast: TBS
New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers Betting Lines from Sportsbook.com
Money Line: Yankees -105, Tigers -105
Over/Under: 9.5
New York Yankees (Trail series 1-2)
A.J. Burnett (Regular season: 11-11, 5.15)
Now, the Yankees must face the pitching demons we all expected them to face all season. A.J. Burnett and his 5.15 season ERA must keep the team alive tonight. Burnett also had a 6.28 ERA on the road this season and has a 6.33 lifetime ERA against the Detroit Tigers. Gulp.
If there’s any positives to draw from Burnett’s performance entering Game 4, it’s that he went 2-0 over six appearances and five starts with a 4.30 ERA in September. He’s still an uber-talented pitcher capable of turning in a dominant effort on any given night.
Detroit Tigers (Lead series 2-1)
Rick Porcello (Regular season: 14-9, 4.75)
The Tigers turn to 22-year-old Rick Porcello as they try to close out the ALDS tonight. Like Burnett, Porcello is not without his demons entering the matchup. He’s had on-and-off homer problems throughout his career and faces a team who hits the long ball better than any other. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
Nick Swisher has taken Porcello deep in the past and has a homer in the series already. Robinson Cano really has Porcello figured out, batting .455 against him over 11 career at-bats.
But Porcello has plenty of positives entering Game 4, too. For one, he throws nothing but strikes, having walked only 46 batters in 182 innings this season. That means the Yanks may not have ducks on the pond if they go yard. Porcello also closed out the season strong, ripping off five straight quality starts and now allowing a homer in his final three outings.
The pick:
Game 4 shapes up to be high-scoring given Porcello’s potential for gopher balls and Burnett’s ugly history against the Tigers. To me, the latter will mean more. Burnett has oodles of ability but he’s not the most mentally tough pitcher out there. Certain teams have his number, get in his head and beat on him almost every time he faces them.
Tonight may be decided by Valverde’s arm again but I think Porcello will outduel Burnett just enough to put Detroit in position to win the series.
Yankees vs Tigers prediction: Tigers 6, Yankees 4
Money Line: Tigers -105
Over/Under: OVER 9.5
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