Handicapping MLB 2014 Division Odds – National League Central
The 2014 MLB season is just about here Spring Training action is going on right now, which means Opening Day is right around the corner. We’re taking a division-by-division look at betting odds and team by team season win totals. Let’s take a look at the NL Central.
The St. Louis Cardinals won the division and went all the way to the World Series last year before falling to the Boston Red Sox. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh were in the one-game playoff to start the postseason. The NL Central is a very tough division, and that isn’t expected to be any different this year. Odds listed are from [dfads params=’groups=63740&limit=1&return_javascript=0′].
MLB 2014 Previews & Predictions- NL Central
NL Central Odds to Win: St. Louis Cardinals -175
Season Win Total: 92.5
What can you say about the St. Louis Cardinals? This is one of the best franchises in baseball, and they are a contender every single year. The oddsmakers obviously expect more of the same from them this year, and I can’t blame them.
This win total is set extremely high, but the Cardinals got to 97 wins a year ago. Adam Wainwright finished second in the NL Cy Young race last year. Wainwright is an innings eater who is probably the second most reliable Ace in the National League.
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The Cardinals pitching depth is scary good. Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn, and Carlos Martinez are all possible starters here. This team won’t run out of quality starters.
The Cardinals hit .330 with runners in scoring position last year, which was a historically high number that they are unlikely to repeat.
They will miss Carlos Beltran, but the Cardinals have plenty of hitting stars left. The biggest question mark is the bullpen. St. Louis is going to win a bunch of games this year.
NL Central Odds to Win: Pittsburgh Pirates +400
Season Win Total: 83.5
The Pittsburgh Pirates are out to prove that last year was no fluke. Pittsburgh finally broke out and had a big winning year last year after many seasons of ugly baseball. The Pirates are a popular bet to drop back this year. It is very hard to imagine everything going as well for the team as it did last year. Pittsburgh’s bullpen was unbelievably good last year. They should still be good, but I expect them to take a step back. The offense isn’t very good outside of Andrew McCutchen. Starling Marte is a youngster who is developing. Pedro Alvarez can slug homers, but he needs to hit for a better average.
A.J. Burnett was big for the rotation last year, but he is gone. The team is relying on Edinson Volquez, and you just never know what you’ll get from him. Can Francisco Liriano keep up his late season form from last year? The Pirates aren’t a bad team, but I’m afraid they aren’t nearly as good as they looked last year.
NL Central Odds to Win: Cincinnati Reds +500
Season Win Total: 84.5
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Dusty Baker is no longer the manager in Cincinnati, and there are a lot of Cincinnati fans who are happy to see a new manager in the dugout. Losing Shin-Soo Choo is going to hurt the offense a lot. Billy Hamilton will now get tons of playing time, and he is a huge key to the Reds offensive success. We know Hamilton can steal bases, but can he get on base often enough? If he does the offense should be good, if not they will struggle. Joey Votto is one of the best hitters in baseball, and I expect an even better year from him this year. The Reds bullpen is relatively strong, and the rotation is good. There is no dominant pitcher here, but one through five are all high quality options. This team is certainly capable of making noise.
NL Central Odds to Win: Milwaukee Brewers +1,200
Season Win Total: 80
Ryan Braun will be back, and though he isn’t going to be a popular player with most MLB fans (why would he be?), he will help this team in a big way. Braun is one of baseball’s best hitters. I like the offseason signing of Matt Garza, who is an underrated starter. K Rod is the team’s new closer, and he should help shore up the bullpen a bit. Losing Norichi Aoki and Corey Hart wasn’t helpful, but this offense should be pretty solid. Rickie Weeks needs to be more consistent this season. Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez both had breakout seasons last year, and if they stay on that pace this offense will be dangerous with Braun and Aramis Ramirez driving them in.
Milwaukee is a better team, but they are playing against good competition here, so a record of somewhere around .500 wouldn’t surprise me.
NL Central Odds to Win: Chicago Cubs +7,000
Season Win Total: 69.5
There is one bad team in the NL Central and the Cubs are that team. The future is likely brighter since they do have a good minor league system, but Chicago doesn’t look ready to contend yet. Anthony Rizzo is a major bright spot, and Starlin Castro should be better than he was last year. Overall though, this offense isn’t to be trusted. Travis Wood and Jeff Samardzija are better pitchers than most people give them credit for being. The bullpen is slightly better this year than it was a year ago, but it’s still a bit of a weakness. I believe the Cubs are marginally better than last year, but finding 70 wins in this division will be difficult.
NL Central Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals (-175)
The NL Central is full of quality teams, but the Cardinals look like the only elite team. St. Louis should win at least 90 games (and probably more) and win the NL Central.
