2013 Baseball Team Win Totals
The season just a few weeks away so it is time to look a little closer at those season win totals. Spring is full of questions and there may be great value in knowing whether the Astros really are as bad as they look, or are the Jays really worthy of playoff consideration?
Arizona Diamondbacks – 82 – The BabyBacks have been a huge disappointment lately and I am not sure of the direction of the team right now with the moves they have made.
I think they will come in under .500 so take the under here.
Atlanta Braves – 87.5 – It was a surprise that the Braves traded Tommy Hanson but I like the look of this team a lot. Their OF should be tremendous and they might have the best bullpen in baseball.
Plus the NL East is light after Washington (and maybe Philly). Take the over.
Baltimore Orioles – 77.5 – This total is predicting a return to normalcy for the O’s. They were so much better than people expected that they have to regress right? Especially in the bullpen. I wouldn’t bet that they can repeat those figures. Take the under.
Boston Red Sox – 82.5 – I don’t see how this incarnation of the Red Sox is going to be a better than .500 team. I think you have to take the under. Especially when you consider the unbalanced schedule has them playing the teams in the East more often than others.
Chicago Cubs – 73 – I suppose the Cubs should be better than they were last year but I wouldn’t bet on this team which is still showing little direction. Don’t forget they don’t even get to push around Houston this season.
Go under.
Chicago White Sox – 80.5 – Chicago should be the second best team in the AL Central this year. Being able to feast on a group of mostly weak teams should enable them to push over .500 for the season.
Play the over.
Cincinnati Reds – 91.5 – The loss of games against Houston hurts their win totals but this is a team that is solid all the way around the diamond. The big X factor is Aroldis Chapman.
If he is effective as a starter this team easily rises over 91.5. I would take the over.
Cleveland Indians – 76.5 – This Indians team should be more consistent with the moves they have made. Their rotation is still kind of light and their chances on this figure will depend in part on how bad, or good, Minnesota and K.C. are. Not a lot of value here so I would stay clear.
Colorado Rockies – 70.5 – These guys could be very bad this season especially if Tulo does not have a huge bounceback season. They are going to have to rely on their lineup more than ever and will win a few 11-9 games but I would feel safer with the under.
Detroit Tigers – 93 – The highest win total on the board and it is hard to argue with it. Great lineup and rotation that could be better than last year with full seasons from Victor Martinez and Anibal Sanchez.
A couple of question marks in the pen and they have a generally mediocre division. Strong value here.
Miami Marlins – 64 – Everyone knows the Marlins are going to be bad this year. The only question is how bad? I think they will challenge the Astros for the worst team in the league and would take the under.
Houston Astros – 60 – Houston, like Florida is going to be really bad. They play in a much more competitive division now which is why they should have the worst record in the league. Going under 60 makes you pause but I can’t make the case for over either.
Kansas City Royals – 77.5 – The Royals surprised by dealing a top prospect for some pitching. It was a short term move that I think will backfire as this team won’t challenge to even make .500. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
Take the under on the Royals in a bunchy middle of the AL Central.
Los Angeles Angels – 91.5 – The Angels are probably the best team in the American League. With the A’s likely not as strong as last year, and Texas too, they should be able to win the West with somewhere over 95 wins.
Take the over.
Los Angeles Dodgers – 91.5 – The Dodgers have made some bold moves over the past 12 months. I am not completely sold that it will all come together the way they think so I am taking the under.
Milwaukee Brewers – 81.5 – The Brewers are a tough team to peg. Their ceiling is high but they could also disappoint as their rotation is kind of thin. I would pass unless you are really bearish on some of their division rivals in the NL Central.
Minnesota Twins – 67 – It should be a real battle between the Twins and Astros for the basement in the AL. The Twins have experience in their lineup but if it is all about pitching than they don’t have much of a chance to be real competitive. I would play under.
New York Mets – 75.5 – If Johan Santana comes back and makes a contribution this team could be better than you think because the rotation could be alright.
Their lineup is awful though and they play in a still relatively tough NL East. They will be closer to the Marlins than the Phillies. Go under.
New York Yankees – 88.5 – I think this is high this year. I am not expecting this team to fall like Boston did last year but where are they going to get the production they normally rely upon. Everyone is getting older and now Granderson is hurt. Go under.
Oakland A’s – 83.5 – How much magic do the A’s have left? The win total is predicting that there won’t be a total fall off but will their formula of slugging and better than expected pitching win again.
This feels about right but could be over if the Rangers really struggle.
Philadelphia Phillies – 82.5 – The lineup is certainly not as fearsome but if this staff is healthy it can be as good as any in the league. They can easily exceed expectations and challenge Atlanta and Washington in the NL East if they are healthy. Play over.
Pittsburgh Pirates – 77 – The Pirate were looking to breakthrough last season but it didn’t materialize. I really like them to do so this year and think there is tremendous value here. Just remember that it is Pittsburgh.
San Diego Padres – 75 – The Padres should be decent this year but in a tough division this is probably about the ceiling for this team. Take the under or nothing at all.
San Francisco Giants – 88.5 – The defending World Series Champs aren’t even the favourite in their own division this season. Betting against the Giants, who still have all that pitching is not a great idea. Whether they win the NL West or not I think they can get 90 victories, especially with some bounceback by Tim Lincecum.
Seattle Mariners – 78.5 – If you look at the numbers the AL West should be super competitive. Moving in the fences at SafeCo is not going to help this team win games.
This number is too high unless you think the A’s are going to fall off the map.
St. Louis Cardinals – 86.5 – I see a down year for the Cardinals and this is my strongest under play. No Carpenter significantly weakens the rotation. They won’t embarrass themselves but this is a .500 team max.
Tampa Bay Rays – 85.5 – The Rays are always a tough team to gauge. They gave up some pitching in the offseason but they appear to have that in spades. If the lineup is truly improved than they could cruise over. I would pass on this number. It seems just right.
Texas Rangers – 86 – The Rangers could go either way this season. They are not better than last year but they are likely good enough to stay in the race all season long. There won’t be as many 10-4 games as we have become accustomed to. Fair value as the second best team in the AL West.
Toronto Blue Jays – 87.5 – Maybe no team improved themselves more in the offseason than Toronto. This is a big jump but they just need the guys they have to play to form not have career years so I like the value.
Washington Nationals – 91.5 – Off-season moves built upon an already good team. A full season of Bryce Harper should lead to more offense and letting Strasburg work more is a positive too.
That alone might have been enough but really like the additions of Dan Haren and Denard Span too.
