2010 MLB Predictions/Previews: Tampa Bay Rays
Hard to believe, as many of us watch the snow fall outside, that the Boys of Summer are almost back. But it’s true; pitchers and catchers have reported to 2010 Major League Baseball training camps and it’s time to start our team-by-team baseball gambling previews for the year.
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MLB Team Preview – Tampa Bay Rays
After Tampa finally shattered the American League East’s glass ceiling in 2008, vaulting ahead of the Yankees thanks to a dynamic young lineup, Rays fans probably asked themselves, “Is this too good to be true?” After a regression in 2009, it seems that way. But all hope is not lost. Tampa simply has too much talent to be a bad baseball team and, if a few key players evolve this season, the Rays could push the Yankees and Red Sox again.
On paper, Tampa’s lineup looks potent, though it could certainly use more consistency. Evan Longoria is the rock, possessing 40-homer power in his blossoming bat and playing solid defense at third. After him, the talent is there, but it’s anyone’s question as to how it performs in 2010.
Carlos Pena has mammoth power but a mammoth strikeout rate; Carl Crawford was bad in 2008 and great in 2009; Ben Zobrist became an All-Star out of nowhere thanks to his outstanding plate discipline; B.J. Upton teases with his legs and bat speed but can’t seem to put everything together for a breakout year; Jason Bartlett took his offensive game to a level no one knew he had last season, but can he repeat those great leadoff numbers?
Take a deep breath to process all those question marks. Chances are, at least half those names pan out enough to give Tampa a solid offense. Crawford and Pena are in contract years, so they may be the most motivated to do so.
Tampa’s rotation is full of good young starters and, if they continue to evolve, the Rays will have a top-five staff in the American League. James Shields had an off 2009 but should rebound thanks to his outstanding control. Don’t let Matt Garza’s 8-12 record last season fool you; he leapt forward, increasing his strikeout rate significantly. More importantly, he has no trouble pitching in the vicious AL East; he compiled an amazing 2.13 ERA in 14 starts – 97 innings – against New York, Boston and Toronto last season. He could assume ace status this year.
The Rays know what they have at the top of the rotation. The key to 2010 is the trio of promising starters at the bottom. 
Jeff Niemann challenged for AL Rookie of the Year honors last season but his 13-6 record and 3.94 ERA may already be his ceiling given his arsenal. The real keys are David Price and Wade Davis. Price entered 2009 arguably as the AL’s top pitching prospect. While he struggled mightily early on, especially on the road, he curbed his walk rate significantly after the All-Star break. He has absolutely electric stuff and is still just 24. Davis impressed in a small sample late last season but it’s too early to tell if he can repeatedly replicate that success at the big league level.
Tampa’s bullpen was outstanding in 2008 but subpar in 2009. Expect something closer to 2008 this season. J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour and new closer Rafael Soriano are all relievers any team would love to have.
Looking up and down the Rays’ roster, there has to be reason for optimism again. Even if guys like Zobrist and Bartlett are flashes in the pan, Tampa has enough high-impact offensive players to pick up the slack. David Price’s development looks real and he could give Tampa an elite rotation if he finds some consistency.
The Rays are a bit too raw – and have too many question marks – to overtake New York or Boston this season. But they’ll be close. Don’t be surprised if there’s a 10-game gap between Tampa in third and Baltimore in fourth in the AL East standings by season’s end, as the Rays should win 85-plus games.
Rays Prediction: Third, American League East
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