2010 MLB Predictions/Previews: San Diego Padres
Hard to believe that the Boys of Summer are almost back. But it’s true; teams have reported to 2010 Major League Baseball training camps and it’s time to start our team-by-team baseball gambling previews for the year. I for one can’t wait to start MLB betting online with the expert picks from CappersPicks.com.
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MLB Team Preview – San Diego Padres
After being a laughing stock for several seasons, the National League West has become one of baseball’s deepest, most competitive divisions. Even the bottom-dwelling San Diego Padres finished 2009 with a 37-25 stretch and were busy in the offseason. But can they keep pace with so many other good teams in their division?
PETCO Park is famous for being the majors’ ultimate pitcher’s haven and, in a sense, the Padres took that to heart when they shipped ace Jake Peavy to the White Sox last season. It’s almost like they felt they could still field great pitching without an expensive ace because their stadium so effectively suppresses offense.
They’ve turned to innings eater Jon Garland, hardly a star, to lead the rotation. Joining him is a young group but one with plenty of promise.
Clayton Richard was part of the Jake Peavy deal and could grow into a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter; Kevin Correia quietly posted 22 quality stats last season and won 12 games. He’ could be the unsung hero of the rotation. Then there’s mammoth Chris Young, who has (had?) ace-caliber talent but gets hurt every season.
The most intriguing starter could be Mat Latos. The 22-year-old has great stuff and could make real noise if he can grab the fifth spot in the rotation out of spring.
As always, the Padres have a rock-solid bullpen. It was no Trevor Hoffman, no problem in 2009. Heath Bell’s 42 saves led the National League and both Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson were effective in setup duty. 
There’s at least reason for optimism when you look at San Diego’s arms; I don’t get the same sensation looking up and down their lineup. Yes, they have Adrian Gonzalez. Given his superb defense to accompany his 40-homer power, he’s among baseball’s most complete players. But, not only is his name the subject of trade rumors, he has little support in the Padre lineup.
Tony Gwynn Jr. and David Eckstein project to be the top two hitters in the order yet would barely be adequate 8-9 hitters in most American League lineups.
Chase Headley hasn’t improved his plate discipline enough to become a solid run producer. There’s definitely potential in Kyle Blanks, however. He has massive natural power thanks to his gigantic frame, which is reminiscent of a young Frank Thomas.
The Padres at least have enough useful pieces to surprise somewhat, but they’re simply not in the same league as the Dodgers, Rockies, Giants or even the Diamondbacks for that matter.
The smart move may be to cash in Gonzalez for a major haul of building blocks – like the Blue Jays did with Roy Halladay. Even if they don’t deal A-Gonz, The Padres seem destined for another year in the cellar.
Padres Prediction: Fifth, National League West
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2 replies on “San Diego Padres Predictions / 2010 Season Preview”
To be fair, the Arizona Diamond backs were the bottom dwellers last year, the Padres finished 5 games ahead of them. I would agree that the Padres are not in the same league as the Giants, Dodgers, or Rockies, but I think they are even, or even slightly ahead of the Dbacks.
I am basing my assessment on the downgrade from Scherzer to Jackson, and Webb coming off an injury. While the Dbacks did make an offensive upgrade at first (Laroche) I don’t think the team has improved enough to overtake the Padres, who should come close to a .500 record this year.
The offense (if Gonzalez stays for the year) will be significantly better. Going by Headly’s small sample at third last year his offense at third base will be an improvement over Kouzmanoff. Headley posted a line of .287 .389 .436 .826 at third base last year in about 100 ab’s.
Cabrera will have a year under his belt and should see his average rise about 10-15 points and see his OB go from .342 to the .350-.360 range, which is solid for a young shortstop/lead off hitter and will still 40-50 bases.
At second Eckstein is a black hole for offense, but it doesn’t look as though he will man the position the whole year as Antonelli is tearing it up this spring training batting .392 at the time this was written. He will be both an offensive an defensive upgrade.
In right field Venable will be seasoned and should be able to hit 15-20 home runs this year with a decent average (.270 range) and play serviceable defense.
In center a platoon of Gwynn and Hairston will prove favorable as Hairston mashes left handed hitting, and Gwynn is a plus defender.
In left is the biggest improvement, a full season of Kyle Blanks. Blanks could very well hit 30 home runs and hit .275 while playing average defense.
On to catching, while Hundley has more experience, I can’t see the Padres expecting more offense from him, or his backup.
Pitching will be better than last year, and it was pretty decent last year. Garland will succeed in Petco and put up a lot of innings, Latos is one of the bright up and coming pitchers in baseball, even though he might spend a month or so in the minors. Richard will put up league average numbers, Correia is a wild card, he can either do what he did last year, or see a setback. The big improvement will be a healthy Chris Young, who, when healthy, is an All-star pitcher.
This team could easily have an ERA under 4 as a team, and score 75-100 more runs this year.
Considering that, I would say the Padres are better than the Diamond Backs.
I just wonder why people predict the Padres will finish last in the division AGAIN, when they were fourth last year, despite beating the ML record for players with the most days on the DL (the Mets set a new record).
The Padres finished five games ahead of Arizona for a reason, and it wasn’t their injuries. The D’Backs are a lousy fielding team (2nd most errors, 2nd fewest DP’s an worst fielding percentage) and despite hitting in a hitter’s park, they had a mediocre team BA and led the league in strikeouts.
If you’re a betting man and you have the D’Backs as contenders, let alone ahead of the Padres, you need to take a closer look before you put your money down.
P.S. Here’s a tip: the Padres new starting right fielder, Will Venable, has been consistently underrated, but keeps exceeding expectations. Getting a full season, he’s a real sleeper.