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Kentucky Derby Free Prediction / Weather / Handicapping

A Mudlark’s Day at the Kentucky Derby?

Could weather be the deciding factor in this year’s Kentucky Derby? Frank Doyle marks your card.

It’s a mark of how open the 136th Kentucky Derby will be that the trainer of the Kentucky Derby betting favorite doesn’t think he should be favorite at all. Lookin at Lucky was beaten by four and a half lengths at Santa Anita by Sidney’s Candy, and Bob Baffert thinks Sidney’s Candy is the true favorite.

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There’s no question but that Sidney’s Candy has the gas to win the Derby, but Baffert is being a little disingenuous about that race at Santa Anita, which was far from straightforward – check out what Al Dannity reported on the race at the time.

Also, Sidney’s Candy has drawn the No 20 post, which means that he’ll have that little bit extra to run if Nick Zito is to win his third Kentucky Derby. Sidney’s Candy have to leave the gate like a rocket, clear the field on the outside and still be going strong after one and a quarter miles. That’s a substantial ask against Kentucky Derby odds that are a little short for real value.

Devil May Care is a stablemate of Eskendereya, the ante-post favorite who was scratched due to injury, but only three fillies have ever won the Derby and trainer Todd Pletcher may have been better advised running her in the Oaks. Sometimes, it’s better to fold and walk away rather than chase it. Kentucky Derby

Lookin at Lucky is a quality horse but it’s not easy win from the rail, and the price is a little short. It’s not easy win from the outside either, no matter how fast the horse is, but least of all over the Derby’s punishing one and a quarter miles. Sidney’s Candy sheer speed advantage is negated by his 20 post.

In the absence of an outstanding favorite, will the weather decide the winner? There is an 80% chance of precipitation forecast for Louisville on Saturday, which adds the mudlark factor as another dimension in picking a winner.

The track turning up mud doesn’t bother Lookin at Lucky either – yet another reason to bet the horse – but there could be value in Noble’s Promise and Super Saver too. Super Saver could be each-way value due to a combination of price, weather and pilot. Super Saver will be ridden by Calvin Borel, who won the Derby last year on Mine that Bird and in 2007 on Street Sense. In the hurly-burly of Churchill Downs, it’s good to have a man up who’s been there and done that.

Whoever is your Derby pick, make sure to check out our Derby markets back in the sportsbook, and make the most of the value on offer on the biggest day in North American horse racing.

Free Pick: Lookin at Lucky

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  1. DC Trebloc says:

    Ice,Ice,Baby…..Ice Box will win!

  2. I’m betting Stately Victor