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2015 Kentucky Derby Betting Preview | Free Prediction & Odds

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The most anticipated race on North American soil – the Kentucky Derby is on tap for this Saturday, May 2 from Churchill Downs in Louisville Kentucky. A season full of prep races has determined the best three year olds in the world – 20 will line up in the starting gate and go 1 ¼ miles on Churchill Downs dirt track for a purse of $2 million.

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The Derby goes as race 11 on Churchill Downs stacked Saturday schedule with a post time of 6:34. It will be broadcast on NBC. Here is a look at all of the confirmed starters and what could play out in the much-hyped Run for the Roses.

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (126) Trujillo/Cassidy 50-1
2. Carpe Diem (126) Velazquez/Pletcher 8-1
3. Materiality (126) Castellano/Pletcher 12-1
4. Tencendur (126) Franco/Weaver 30-1
5. Danzig Moon (126) Leparoux/Casse 30-1
6. Mubtaahij (126) Soumillon/de Kock 20-1
7. El Kabeir (126) Borel/Terranova 30-1
8. Dortmund (126) Garcia/Baffert 3-1
9. Bolo (126) Bejarano/Gaines 30-1
10. Firing Line (126) Stevens/Callaghan 12-1
11. Stanford (126) Geroux/Pletcher 30-1
12. International Star (126) Mena/Maker 20-1
13. Itsaknockout (126) Saez/Pletcher 30-1
14. Keen Ice (126) Desormeaux/Romans 50-1
15. Frosted (126) Rosario/McLaughlin 15-1
16. War Story (126) Talamo/Amoss 50-1
17. Mr. Z (126) Vazquez/Lukas 50-1
18. American Pharoah (126) Espinoza/Baffert 5-2
19. Upstart (126) Ortiz/Violette 15-1
20. Far Right (126) Smith/Moquett 30-1
21. (AE) Frammento (126) Nakatani/Zito 50-1
22. (AE) Tale of Verve (126) Hernandez Jr./Stewart 50-1

Trainer Bob Baffert has the two favorites in the race – American Pharoah at 5-2 odds and Dortmund at 3-1 odds. Both are top 2 for a reason. American Pharoah has four wins in five career starts – the only blemish coming in his debut including a dominant eight length win last time out in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Dortmund on the other hand is undefeated in six career starts – as dominant a horse as there has been in a long time in the California racing scene. American Pharoah looks like the class of the field but will depart from an unfavorable post 18 – something that could determine his fate this weekend.

The third choice in the race, Todd Pletcher trained Carpe Diem at 8-1 odds is certainly impressive. He has five career starts with four wins and a second place finish – that second coming behind Texas Red in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He won the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes last time out and demolished the field in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby before that. Carpe Diem has been top-notch indeed and should at very least contend for the biggest title in North American Thoroughbred racing.

The winner from the race should come from the top 3 betting choices – American Pharoah, Dortmund and Carpe Diem are the class of this deep field. I will reveal my pick shortly.

Looking for some value? There is plenty of that on the board right now. How about Kiaran McLaughlin trained Frosted at 15-1. He seems to be peeking at the right time – a win last time out in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial followed two runner-up finishes in graded stakes action. There’s UAE Derby winner Mubtaahij at 20-1. He isn’t scared of distance and will be attempting to become the first Derby winner based in Dubai. There is also Michael Maker trained International Star at 20-1. He was the top point getter along the Road to the Kentucky Derby and enters on a three-race win streak – all graded stakes races.

Prediction:

This race looks like it will come down to the two Baffert colts – American Pharoah and Dortmund – not a sexy prediction but a smart one. Despite an unfortunate post position, I like American Pharoah at 5-2 odds to end Dortmund’s perfect run – my gut feeling is that we haven’t seen the best from him yet and will on Saturday. Pharoah will have Victor Espinoza in the saddle – he was on California Chrome last year. You don’t have to get cute here – American Pharoah is the best by far.

I like second choice Dortmund to finish second at 3-1 odds with 15-1 shot Frosted awarding his backers with a third place finish.

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About DaveB

Dave B has been a Fantasy Football writer for us for 10 years. A couch potato wannabe, Dave’s insights have been read by 10’s of people for years. He hope’s for world peace + global relaxation. Enjoy and remember only smoke things that are completely natural.


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