2014 Belmont Stakes Preview and Pick
Horse Racing’s Triple Crown comes to a close this Saturday at Belmont Park when the 146th running of the Belmont Stakes is contested.
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History could be made when California Chrome attempts to become the 12th horse in history to win the Triple Crown – the first since Affirmed in 1978.
A field of 11 will try to derail California Chrome’s dream and squash the cravings of so many Thoroughbred fans when they take to the track and go 1 1/2 miles – the longest of the Triple Crown races. So will anyone be able to take down the overwhelming and hugely sentimental favorite Saturday?
Let’s take a peek.
Favorites
California Chrome has been instilled as the overwhelming 3-5 favorite for the Belmont – for good reason. Nobody has really touched him the last eight months or so – six straight wins, all in impressive fashion. Many, including myself hope for a seventh win Sunday and there is no reason to think he won’t achieve history.
There are a number of colts that represent challenges to the Triple Crown bid including Wicked Strong who finished fourth last time out in the Kentucky Derby but skipped the Preakness. He won the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and is listed as the 3-1 second choice on the morning line.
Wicked Strong has the speed to contend and he has reportedly looked very comfortable on Belmont Park’s main track. Christophe Clement trained Tonalist is the third choice – 8-1 odds after a win on this very track May 10 in the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes.
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Familiarity with the surroundings and confidence after a win here makes him a threat indeed – but he has just three starts in his career so his class is somewhat tough to measure on the biggest stage.
Further down is Ride On Curlin who has finished worse than third just twice in 11 career starts.
He was second behind California Chrome most recently in the Preakness but has yet to win a graded stakes race. Ride On Curlin goes off at 12-1 odds and looks like the best chance for the field to upset the overwhelming favorite.
Next is Commanding Curve who was the surprise of the Kentucky Derby finishing second to California Chrome in the Run for the Roses at 37-1 odds. Commissioner is another strong entry – he most recently finished second behind Tonalist in the Peter Pan Stakes on this track but has mixed some unflattering results in with his good efforts in the recent past.
Good Chance
General A Rod is 20-1 on the morning line and has raced in the previous two legs of the Triple Crown with OK results. He finished an OK fourth in the Preakness and eleventh in the Kentucky Derby and has two wins, two seconds and a third place finish in seven career starts.
Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes winner Medal Count is also 20-1 on the morning line but has had as many off-the-board finishes in graded stakes company as podium finishes.
Longshots
A super-sleeper in the race comes in the form of Richard Violette trained Samraat who was fifth in the Kentucky Derby but finished a good second behind Wicked Strong in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial April 5 at Aqueduct.
Todd Pletcher trained Matterhorn is 30-1 and is coming off a fourth in the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes on this track while Bill Mott pupil Matuszak is also 30-1 having posted just one win in eight career starts.
Simply put, the Belmont Stakes in California Chrome’s race to lose. It appears that only he will determine whether or not history will be made. Chrome should win going away – he hasn’t been challenged in his last six starts and likely won’t be challenged here.
Ride On Curlin at 12-1 odds looks like the best chance for an upset here with Samraat in position to provide a shock.
My Triple Crown Pick
Although history is against California Chrome the smart money is flowing his way – mine included!
