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2012 Belmont Stakes Lines / Free Betting Prediction

2012 Belmont Stakes Betting Preview

This Saturday marks the 144th running of the Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York.

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Known primarily has the third and final leg of the Triple Crown racing season, this year’s event takes on even more importance as for the first time since 2008, a horse has a shot at winning the elusive Triple Crown with a win in this race.

The last horse to accomplish this feat was Affirmed in 1978 and in the long and illustrious history of thoroughbred racing, only 11 other horses can claim this honor.

The following is a look at my top favorite, contender, and longshot to win Saturday’s race according to Belmont’s current morning-line odds.

The Favorite – I’ll Have Another 4/5

Trainer Doug O’Neil and jockey Mario Gutierrez are not exactly household names when it comes to Triple Crown racing so it is little wonder that I’ll Have Another came into the Kentucky Derby with very little fanfare, despite winning both the grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes and the grade I Santa Anita Derby in his two previous prep races.

Closing as a moderate 15/1 longshot, this chestnut colt ran the race of his life to track down favorite Bodemeister down the stretch to capture the crown jewel of this series, the Kentucky Derby. In what almost looked like an instant replay, he did the same thing in the Preakness to earn a rare opportunity to race for the Triple Crown. While he is the odds-on-favorite to win, in reality the odds are stacked against him.

Since 1978, there were 11 other horses that won the first two legs and lost in the longer and more grueling Belmont.

The Contender – Dullahan 5/1

This colt is probably the most serious threat to up-end I’ll Have Another amazing run with a victory in this race. He made a valiant run as well in the Kentucky Derby and finished a head behind Bodemeister in third place.

Trained by Dale Roman, Dullahan was widely considered one of the favorites to win at Churchill after winning the grade I Blue Grass Stakes where he made a charge from 11th place to beat favored Hanson by 1 ¼ lengths.

He kicked-off his three-year old campaign with a second-place finish in the grade II Palm Beach Stakes after wrapping-up 2011 with a fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Roman held Dullahan out of the Preakness to train for this race.

The Longshot – Paynter 8/1

At 8/1 it is hard to call this horse a true longshot, but given the strength of the first two thoroughbreds on this list along with Union Rags at 6/1 he truly is. Trainer Bob Baffert decided that Bodemeister had enough of Triple Crown racing so he decided to enter his second-best option in this Saturday’s race.

Paynter did not run in either the Derby or the Preakness, but after winning the Derby Trial and an Allowance race at Pimlico that was on the same racing card as the Preakness, Baffert decided he was ready for a run in the Belmont.

Updated Belmont Odds The field, from the rail out:

Street Life (Jose Lezcano, 12-1)
Unstoppable U (Junior Alvarado, 30-1)
Union Rags (John Velazquez, 6-1)
Atigun (Julien Leparoux, 30-1)
Dullahan (Javier Castellano, 5-1)
Ravelo’s Boy (Alex Solis, 50-1)
Five Sixteen (Rosie Napravnik, 50-1)
Guyana Star Dweej (Kent Desormeaux, 50-1)
Paynter (Mike Smith, 8-1)
Optimizer (Corey Nakatani, 20-1)
I’ll Have Another (Mario Gutierrez, 4-5)
My Adonis (Ramon Dominguez, 20-1)

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About Dave Schwab

David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog at www.eaglesinc.com. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.


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