NFL Week 4 Odds and Lines
The Patriots, Colts and Giants highlight the teams on a bye this week. Heading in to the Week 4 betting odds and lines, too many teams have too many questions for their betting faithful. We have some great games on the board, so let’s blitz through them and see who you should be taking, and which spread donkeys you need to steer clear of.
For me, this weekend starts with the Green Bay Packers visiting Raymond James Stadium to bash helmets with the Bucs. Jon Gruden’s benching of Jeff Garcia has raised a lot of eyebrows, but nobody is doubting Brian Griese after he led a thrilling come-from-behind nail biter against the Bears. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are out to prove they are the real deal after Dallas dismantled them on Sunday Night Football. In a line that will dance all week, I suggest siding with the Tampa Bay Bucs at -2.5 in the OVER. They’re not a sexy team, but the Bucs are 7-3 ATS at home, and nobody knows how good Aaron Rodgers is at home.
Continuing on with the NFC South, the Falcons visit the Carolina Panthers 7.5-point road dogs with a tempting O/U of 39.5. Both teams are 4-1 ATS, but Matt Ryan has proven to be a letdown on the road. The last time they visited a divisional rival, they lost 9-24 against the Bucs. This may seem like a big advantage to give Carolina after a 10-point loss to Minnesota, but the smart betting backer will take Carolina in the UNDER.
The 49ers destroyed Detroit 31-13 as J.T. O’Sullivan took center stage in unraveling his former team. Now they pay visit to the New Orleans Saints, who stand as 6-point favorites over the Niners. New Orleans has been shaky this year, going 2-1 ATS and pushing the OVER in three games thus far. The Superdome is a dangerous place to be, so New Orleans looks like a safe pick against a Niners team that has gone 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on the road.
The Jets play host to the Arizona Cardinals as 2.5-point favorites. Anyone who got caught up in Favre-mania has certainly come to their senses by now. The Jets are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home and anyone who has watched their last two games has certainly lost faith. The same is not true for the 2-1 ATS and 2-1 SU Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals stumbled against Washington last weekend in a 17-24 loss, but have a sneaky team. This is a tempting line for those that haven’t given up on Favre yet, but the smart betting man will take Arizona as underdogs to win outright.
Two rushing giants will clash in the early games as Minnesota hits the ground running in Tennessee. The Vikings and Adrian Peterson are being given 3-points on the road, and they may need it. The man known as “All Day” is spending most of his time nursing a sore hamstring. Tennessee is 4-1 ATS because their rushing defense has only allowed 89.0 yards per game. While AP spends time trying to nurse a hamstring back to health, Chris Johnson of the Titans will use this game to highlight his Rookie of the Year Campaign in our NFL futures. Tennessee is tough to bet against with a spread of three or less, especially when they’re at home. For now, I like Kerry Collins and the Titans to take down Minnesota in what will prove to be a game that stays in the UNDER.
In the battle started by Paul Brown himself, the Browns will visit their hated rival Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are favored at -3.5 for now, but that could increase if Braylon Edwards’ injury prevents him from lacing up. As much as you may want to love the Browns, the Bengals proved last week that they are still a viable offensive threat. I have no idea what is going on with Derek Anderson, but I’ll be surprised if he has his job by Week 7. The Browns’ problems continue to mount as Cincinnati rights the ship with a win over Cleveland this weekend.
The Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars have each toiled for respect in the AFC South. While Jacksonville has started to gain a semblance of it, the Texans have not. The Texans are the devil of the NFL betting world, going 0-5 ATS in their past five road games and 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games. The line is moving away from Jacksonville, so jump on it because I like Jacksonville as long as the line doesn’t go above -8.5 for the Jaguars. Matt Schaub, as abysmal as he’s been for the past couple weeks, can unleash if given the right chance. The Jaguars are still licking their wounds, but will have all day to run Fred Taylor and MoJo against a defense that allows 168.5 rush yards per game.
Two huge games will help decide the fate of the AFC West. The Chargers pay a visit to the Oakland Raiders as 7-point road favorites. Both teams stand at 1-2 SU, while Oakland has gone an impressive 2-1 ATS thus far this season. The Chargers look to be back in the hunt for the Superbowl, but a loss to the lowly Raiders will curtail any progress they made on Monday Night Football. JaMarcus Russell is still a horrific decision maker, and unless Darren McFadden and Michael Bush go on an absolute tear, I see the Raiders getting ripped to shreds by the Chargers. Oakland is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games at home, while San Diego remains 5-0 ATS in their last 5 roadies. I’m not sure if the Raiders like or dislike Lane Kiffen, but either way they don’t have the talent to match the San Diego Superchargers.
The Denver Broncos have been magnificent on the field with three straight wins. However, their betting faithful become more and more frustrated as the Broncos fell to a 1-1-1 ATS record on the season. Now that they’re on the road, and the only real gauge of their away game ability is a test against Oakland where they won 41-14, then I’d say the choice has to go with Denver over Kansas in a romp. The Chiefs simply haven’t been able to put up a fight. Aside from that opening spread victory against New England, don’t expect the injury-hampered Chiefs to get the wagons rolling as the Broncos smash them at Arrowhead to take a firm lead in the always outrageous AFC West.
Trent Green makes his undesirable return to the NFL to take over the benched Marc Bulger. No offense, Coach Linehan, but benching Bulger isn’t going to make things better. The Bills are 11-5 ATS in the last 16, while St. Louis has failed to cover the spread yet this season. The Bills had a 10-point spread they failed to cover at home against the Raiders. The -9.5 they are getting against St. Louis appears to be a trap since the Rams are so bad. While I advise this as a stay-away game, if you pointed a staple gun to my temple, all my readers who know me would take the Bills to decimate a Rams’ defense that hasn’t shown up all season. The Rams are getting outscored by 29.0 points per game and Trent Edwards will use this platform to demonstrate that he is a playmaker, not a game manager.
The Redskins and Cowboys rejuvenate an exciting rivalry as both teams have gone 2-1 ATS thus far. America’s Team has been mildly horrific against the Skins, going 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games at home and 1-5 ATS when playing Washington. The Redskins are simply one of those teams that gives Dallas fits. The NFL betting trends point towards Washington. Dallas has been the team that Santonio Holmes rips apart every year. Is this year going to be any different?
The lines for both night games are still off, so let’s make some early picks here before the getting cools off. Philadelphia proved last weekend at home that they have the stuff that Champions are made of. Chicago fell apart against Tampa, and if they can get diced up by Brian Griese then Donavan McNabb should have a field day in the endzone with whomever he’s got around him. The Sunday Night Free pick will stay with Philadelphia unless the spread is -5.5 or higher. Anything below that and you should jump all over Philadelphia. I don’t trust the Bears or Kyle Orton, especially with Matt Forte already hitting that dreaded “80-yards a game” plateau.
Pittsburgh’s back at home, where they never lose for the Monday Nighter. The big question will be Rashard Mendenhall’s ability to take over the game with Willie parker nursing a sore knee. The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 on the road, and Pittsburgh is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games at home. I always advise that Pittsburgh is a safe bet at home, and I’m not about to change my stance today. Bet on Pittsburgh to rout Baltimore and check back later this week to the BetUS Locker Room as we release our lines on the game.
