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Wildcard NFL Totals Betting Analysis

Wildcard Weekend- Totals Analysis

There was no shortage of offense this past weekend as all four wildcard playoff games went over their total. While the first three games were one sided victories, the final game between Green Bay and Arizona was not only a thriller that has to be already considered an instant classic; it set the record for most points ever scored in a postseason game.


Here is a brief recap of all four games

New York Jets@ Cincinnati Bengals
Over/Under 34.5 Result 38 OVER

When you looked at each of these teams’  defense verse the offense it had all the makings of a very low scoring affair. The Jets came into this one with the #1 defense in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed, and most importantly points allowed at 14.8 The Bengals defense was ranked 4th overall giving up an average of 18.2 points per game. After an impressive seven play scoring drive on their second possession of the game it appeared that Cincinnati’s offense was in for a good day, but that thought soon ended as the Jets basically shut them down from that point on. Bengal QB Carson Palmer ended up completing only 18 of 36 attempts for 146 yards. New York on the other hand relied on their number one ranked rushing offense which racked up 171 yards to grind out a 24-14 win.

Philadelphia Eagles@ Dallas Cowboys
Over/Under 45 Result 48 OVER

In week 17, Dallas used a punishing rushing attack and relentless pressure on defense to blank the Eagles 24-0. With the exception of a 76 yard TD pass completion from backup Eagles QB Michael Vick to rookie WR Jeremy Maclin, the Cowboys shutdown Philadelphia again in a commanding 34-14 win. Fueled by a 27 point second quarter, Dallas built an insurmountable lead and frustrated the Eagles on both sides of the ball. This week it was Felix Jones turn to run through the Eagles’ defense, gaining 148 yards on the ground. QB Tony Romo had another solid outing completing 23 of 35 attempts for 244 yards and two TDs. The Cowboy’s defense was able to keep constant pressure on Eagles’ QB Donovan McNabb, while their secondary completely took All Pro WR DeSean Jackson out of the game by holding him to three catches for 14 yards.

Baltimore Ravens@ New England Patriots
Over/Under 43 Result 47 OVER

Baltimore got out of the blocks quickly in this one scoring on the first play from scrimmage on a Ray Rice 83 yard run. On the next series Terrell Suggs striped the ball from Tom Brady and the Ravens made it 14 -0 five plays later when FB Le’Ron McClain scored from one yard out. New England was never able to close the gap as Baltimore advanced on with a 33-14 win. The Ravens utilized a similar strategy from the first playoff two games of the weekend; run the ball down the opposition’s throats and use constant pressure on defense to shut down them down. The Ravens ended up with 234 yards on the ground as QB Joe Flacco only attempted 10 passes all day long. Patriot QB Tom Brady wilted under the pressure by turning the ball over four times including three interceptions. He ended the day completing only 23 of 42 attempts for a total of 154 yards.

Green Bay Packers@ Arizona Cardinals
Over/Under 48 Result 96 OVER

In one of the wildest playoff games in the history of the NFL that featured nothing but offense, Arizona CB Michael Adams stripped the ball from Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers and LB Karlos Dansby ran it in for a score to give the Cardinals a 51-45 overtime win. The stats in this game speak for themselves. Rodgers completed 28 of 42 attempts for 422 yards and 4 TDs. Not to be outdone, Arizona QB Kurt Warner completed 29 of 33 attempts for 379 yards and five TD’s. There were over 1000 yards of total offense and three receivers; Jermichael Finley and Greg Jennings for the Packers and Steve Breaston for the Cardinals had well over 100 yards receiving. There were only two punts, but 13 TDs adding up to the highest scoring game in playoff history at 96.

According to the early total lines for next week’s games you can expect the scoreboard to be busy again as we add the offensive fire power of San Diego, Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Minnesota to the mix.


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About Dave Schwab

David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog at www.eaglesinc.com. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.