NFL Week 16 Preview
Three games with serious implications in the standings are hogging all the action on the NFL betting board heading into this weekend.
In Tennessee, the Titans look to hold off the Pittsburgh Steelers and the NFL’s best defense for first place in the AFC, while two games involving NFC South squads highlight action in the senior conference.
Fighting for a playoff spot, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the San Diego Chargers who by some stroke of God have not yet been eliminated from the playoffs.
The Bucs continue to battle for a postseason berth with the Atlanta Falcons, who beat Tampa Bay last week and will deal with the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee (+2, 34.5) – 1 PM ET
If you don’t think public perception and square betting action makes a difference on the line, look no further than Sunday’s matchup between the Steelers (11-3, 8-6 ATS) and the Titans (12-2, 11-3 ATS).
Pittsburgh was a 3-point road underdog heading into last week’s 13-9 win over the Baltimore Ravens, who are certainly one of the AFC’s best teams. Reason would have it the Steelers would face similar odds rolling into Nashville to take on the Titans, who have the NFL’s best record and have been the league’s best bet against the spread.
Not so much. Pittsburgh is a 2-point favorite at LP Field, in part because squares still haven’t caught up to Tennessee and because of the Steelers’ status as a public team. Nearly 65% of wagers on the spread have come in on Pittsburgh through Thursday evening, meaning bettors aren’t fazed that the Titans have won six of their last seven home games against the Steelers.
To be fair to public bettors and to oddsmakers, Tennessee is without defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch (groin) and defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth (knee) for the contest, two players together who are worth at least one point on the line.
San Diego at Tampa Bay (-3.5, 42.5) – 1 PM ET
The Buccaneers (9-5, 8-6 ATS) and their backers are banking on the team’s perfect record at home when Tampa Bay hosts the Chargers (6-8, 5-8-1 ATS).
The Bucs have yet to lose at Raymond James Stadium this season, and they have to be happy to be back home after consecutive losses to division rivals Atlanta and Carolina. The losses did serious damage to Tampa Bay’s playoff chances, although the Buccaneers are still tied for the fifth in the NFC standings with the Falcons and the Dallas Cowboys.
San Diego has an interesting trend of its own on the go, as the Bolts are an impressive 12-0 SU in December games since 2006. The dogged Chargers won’t even have to do that to cash for bettors on Sunday, even though a win would keep San Diego in the hunt for the postseason.
The Chargers need a victory and a Denver Broncos loss at home to the Buffalo Bills to keep the dream alive, and they’ll need the LaDainian Tomlinson of old to get it done. LT has failed to run for 100 yards in each of the last six games, although considering how the Bucs have been stopping the run lately San Diego is in luck.
Tampa Bay allowed 299 yards on the ground against Carolina and 175 yards against the Falcons, so the time might be right for Tomlinson to do right by his boss.
Atlanta at Minnesota (-3, 43.5) – 4:15 PM ET
Two teams that have very little problems running the ball or stopping the ground game meet when the Falcons (9-5, 8-6 ATS) travel to the Metrodome to face the Vikings (9-5, 6-8 ATS).
Behind the league’s leading runner in Adrian Peterson, Minnesota is third in the league in rushing (147.6 yards per game), while Atlanta is tied for first (148.7 YPG) on the back of Michael Turner. The Vikes are also excellent against the run, leading the NFL at 71.2 yards rushing against per game, so that could be the backbreaker for the Falcons.
Minnesota’s offense is absolutely sizzling heading into the matchup, having averaged 29.8 points per game during its last four contests (3-1 ATS). Tarvaris Jackson is back under center for the Vikings, who can clinch the NFC North with a win on Sunday.
Atlanta has won three of four (2-2 ATS) to sit tied for fifth in the NFC, including a 13-10 overtime win over Tampa Bay (+5.5) last week. The Falcons could have a tougher time against the Vikings, who are holding opponents to 18.0 PPG over their last four games.
